ORH_wxman

Yeah the block is holding it north of Maine instead of allowing it to just march east.

Rocky IV was on TV a couple nights ago so I was texting with scooter making fun of those analogies about winter.

If Apollo Creed was winter 2022-23 and the -PNA was Drago, this storm is Rocky out for revenge. “I’m seeing change. If you can change, and I can change, this winter can still change!”

Icon looks like it’s gonna be another fun solution

1/27/11 was actually an A. Hit DC pretty good with thundersnow I remember. But it developed relatively slowly down south so it wasn’t maxing out down near DC. More like northern Mid-Atlantic into SE SNE.

Starting to get pavement stickage. Down to 31.5

I want to see this continue through 12z runs tomorrow before I start chucking weenies. The trend today was obviously very potent and that is meaningful, but there is still enough lead time that average model error from this point can still screw us.

Block is pretty east-based on this storm. Not really worried about big suppression.

Actually picking up here now. Good flakes and sticking to non-paved surfaces.

Your area is still pretty good in Bs though the skunk factor defin it let goes up in them there. But storms like Jan 2011 and Feb 2013 are great examples of crushing Bs there.

First weenie flakes here.

36/24 with snow imminent. Not expecting much though as radar looks like ka-ka. Might get a decent little burst here though over the next hour or two. Hopefully it fills in a bit.

I mean, it’s 5 days out on the 00z runs tonight (at least the onset). I don’t see how we don’t get this inside of 5 days. The main shortwave responsible for this is already onshore (at least partially) over the Pacific Northwest so we don’t have any major data assimilation issues for that part of it. I really think the two main factors are going to be the block (which has been slowly ticking stronger) and that second shortwave that tries to phase on the euro (doesn’t quite get there on GFS).

I’m letting George keep this thread under the condition that he’s banned if the storm shits the bed.

Yeah if we’re getting buried on tomorrow’s 12z and especially 00z runs tomorrow night, then it might be time to start chucking them.

It's coming in slightly colder, but the biggest difference is it's ripping the rates much better than on earlier runs. It hammers for about 3-4 hours this evening. Other guidance has been pretty paltry with rates while it's still cold enough to snow up until you are north of NH border.

I remember I was doing a radio show on here (back when we had them) for that storm and I was looking at the 00z runs about 3 days before the storm and saying on the show "I think NYC might get annihilated....I know they are on the edge right now, but this monster deep ULL is almost in a perfect spot for them and the confluence to the north is going to great an insane band near the northern part right near where NYC is"....models eventually caught on to the idea, but I was jealous of that one there. It looked perfect on model guidance.

Rap gone wild north of the pike.

Nickels and dimes are great around the holidays....gives it that great holiday vibe....but still, I am not sure I'd ever trade in a true monster storm for them. But since we've already had a dumpster fire season during the heart of cold/pack climo, there's no way I'd even think about preferring a bunch of nickel and dimes in late Feb and early Mar over a 30-burger. Late season is also big dog season....seasons in seasons as Kevin would say.

or 2016.....

What is the empirical basis of this statement as it pertains to our current guidance? It's a pretty clear outlier amongst all guidance that goes out far enough to see this system. Ukie/GGEM/Euro/Icon (if we want to include) are all pretty much on the same page synoptically....Euro juices it to another level, but the track is similar on all of them while the GFS is significantly further north and late with the redevelopment. I wouldn't completely discount the GFS, but I'd place it significantly less likely to verify than the other suite of guidance.

Everyone's grading system is their own. But I'd forgive a lot of sins if we got a 30"+ snowstorm....even in a winter like this. I wouldn't give it a good grade, but I'd prob elevate it to like a C or C-.

HRRR doesn't do that and neither does the Euro....NAM is the only one that erodes it all prior to round 2. It's gonna be hard to dislodge it once it oozes down....you need a legit mechanism to move that dense air. Right on the water it would be easier if you can turn the flow onshore, but I don't see how you remove it from, say, the 128 belt.

Pretty awesome continuity for an OP run that far out. Though as Tip and I were just discussing...it's almost an inevitable outcome once it reaches the Ohio Valley 36-48 hours earlier. So you'd expect to see good continuity when some of these larger scale features are not moving much.

Colder in BOS than upstate NY