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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    We’ve had some warm and snowy winters recently…2020-21, 2016-17, 2012-13 were all “warm” and snowy around here. They still had long stretches of snow cover though. Ironically, our coldest winter in the past 7 years was a bit BN for snow which was 2018-19.
  2. ORH_wxman
    The reason he got 5-posted was he did this every year even 10 years ago when everyone was getting buried. Calling for the same thing over and over again provided zero value. Even went out of his way this year to confidently call 1/7 a miss. Again…zero value.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I think he’s still below 10”. He’s gonna need several good sized storms…esp if 1/29-30 is a no-go there. Things can happens fast in any favorable pattern but there’s never any guarantees. Sometimes you get 2-3 double digit storms in a 2 week period but other times you might just get one storm or maybe you get two smaller ones or maybe you get skunked despite a good look.
  4. ORH_wxman
    The favored areas are prob pretty similar. This can still keep trending warm too though. But it equally could trend back colder, so we’ll see. But I’d feel pretty good in CNE right now and cautiously optimistic over northern interior SNE.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Looks excellent for CNE and perhaps into interior SNE though more precarious further south.
  6. ORH_wxman
    That’s def a +PNA. Looks where the anomalies are….low anomalies S of the Aleutians and higher anomalies in western Canada. It’s split flow though which is why we see the lower height anomalies in California and the southwest. That can be a great pattern for us if there’s cold around but we’d prob want to sharpen the ridge a little more to lower the heights over the northeast.
  7. ORH_wxman
    The problem is when pack depth is too thin, it’s a lot easier to warm it up, even when it’s a lot of ice. You start getting dark leaves, grass blades, twigs and other things that protrude out of it which really accelerates it. Hopefully we build an actual deep pack for a few weeks at some point, but I’m just hoping for a couple big dogs at this point. This recent stretch has been nice with snow OTG. Today was the first time since 1/14 I hit freezing.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yeah 2-3 inches won’t survive even if we wedge in the 37-42 degree range. I think areas deeper inland with 4-6” have a decent chance of keeping it if we stay wedged though and don’t torch 50s/60s. But it may not be gone long if Sunday pans out. Did you see the GFS continuing the model war? Lol…literally opposite of EPS. Even the GEFS are trending toward those OP runs.
  9. ORH_wxman
    You might want to tone it down or take a time out....we give leeway here but you're on the line with abusive behavior.
  10. ORH_wxman
    GFS essentially turns the western ridge into a temporary block so it doesn't move for a few days...big difference vs other guidance. I won't believe it though until there's better agreement.
  11. ORH_wxman
    There are massive differences on the GFS and other guidance post-1/30 too....GFS really keeps the flow super amped and meridional while the GGEM and Euro really flatten out that western ridge and just push the whole thing east. The differences in sensible wx during the first week of February would be massive.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Didn't take much for a GGEM improvement though...low bar...it was super flat at 00z....I'd like to see it amp up more in the next couple cycles.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Def an improvement on the GFS from previous runs. Still not quite enough for a big event in SNE but it does get advisory snows into CT/RI and maybe even low end warning for SW CT. Not a bad spot 6 days out.
  14. ORH_wxman
  15. ORH_wxman
    This post reminds me of weenies years ago who would say the night before a storm "I'm already down to 25 degrees and the NAM said it would be 28F....this going to be a cold bust!!!", only for it not to matter because boundary layer mixing doesn't really affect anything happening aloft.
  16. ORH_wxman
    He wasn't even posting about the cold tuck...he's posting about whether today's high will be 38F or 33F.
  17. ORH_wxman
    I'm not sold on a cold tuck for any of us in SNE later Wednesday, but it would def favor further northeast where the source is if it happens. I wouldn't look at today's temps as any predictor of what a cold tuck would do 60 hours from now.
  18. ORH_wxman
    ICON was close for next Sunday....gave S RI over to far SE MA advisory type snows.
  19. ORH_wxman
    That could be an issue with icing since aloft has warmed by then. Still a lot of light precip/drizzle around for that, so if you cold tuck into the upper 20s, that could get ugly.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That's for 14z which was 50 minutes ago....PSM was still only 21 at that point and MHT was 16F...it doesn't look that bad.
  21. ORH_wxman
    06z EPS is definitely more amped for next Monday than the 00z run....will be interesting to see if that trend is real....12z should be interesting and I'd like to see other guidance become more bullish.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if we got like a moderate 4-8/6-10 type event next Monday, that would for sure change the feel...it would put many above average for January.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I dunno, I could see either verifying....esp down in SNE....if I was further north up into S NH, I'd def fade the Euro.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Crazy how much warmer the Euro is for late week than other guidance....GFS/GGEM struggle to get it out of the 30s with the wedge. Euro goes 60s.
  25. ORH_wxman
    You're trying to time the southern stream to amplify enough while the northern stream presses just enough to get cold into here for next Sunday night/monday. Def threading the needle.
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