ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah that’s really blatant when you put the departures right next to BOS like that. ORH is almost exactly 2 warmer each month.
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Yes. I’d be shocked if we don’t have some distinct moves by one camp by tomorrow morning. My guess is we’ll see some sort of compromise but the magnitude of that comprise matters a lot. If GFS wins 70/30, then you’re gonna get smoked, but if it loses 70/30, it’s pretty pedestrian.
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The general consensus is around 400-500m. It can depend on rates though too and also what the peak temperature in that layer is. A 500m layer of 0.5C temps might not be enough but if the temp is getting to 1.5C in that layer, then it would be enough. That’s a pretty thin layer there but its def greater than 500m so it would be a sleet sounding.
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The track of the ULL in the Midwest is the real key. On the GFS it keeps it south of the southern MI border into western OH. On runs like the NAM, it’s tracking into the thumb of MI. That’s a pretty big difference of 100+ miles.
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That GFS CCB sig is crazy. It looks even better this run than 12z. I’m not buying into that yet but the persistence of that model has to be acknowledged. Esp since it’s one of the better models. We did see 18z reggie make a big nod toward it even if not quite all the way there. But the other guidance makes it hard to really buy into the idea.
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I’ve already told everyone to expect a repeat of Mar ‘56.
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There was also about a 10-12 foot storm surge in the FL Panhandle on the east side of that low. That’s almost unheard of for a non tropical cyclone.
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Still on the colder side of guidance. Never really changes over north of CT/MA border.
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In a sense, yes....at least late in the game....but we need it to not gain so much latitude earlier on. On the plus side....Reggie is trying to go full GFS at 18z...huge shift. Too bad it's not 2015 when it never missed a hanging curve.
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Looked like it was digging the initial s/w more which causes it to want to rip N when it goes negative, but the confluence looked a little better well out to the east to it was forced to shoot eastward once it hit the brick wall.
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The entire ridge/trough couplet in March 1993 was considerably larger than what the Euro is showing...and that's not to poo-poo the OP Euro look...that's a powderkeg look there....but Mar '93 was so ridiculous in the magnitude of it relative to the hemispheric pattern that it makes the D10 Euro look kind of paltry in comparison. Like March '93 wasn't playing around with the blocky look we have here...it was just simply including the PV into the trough axis
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18z NAM actually crunched the low eastward quicker than 12z despite initially being further north. Something to watch on future runs...if that process happens a little faster, you start ending up pretty snowy quickly...like I said earlier with the QPF too, it's sort of non-linear.
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The ORH record is bogus....since ASOS has been running consistently about 2F warm. It's still roughly a top 5 warmest winter though there, just not truly warmer than 2001-2002.
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The ageo flow isn't as good as the 2/23 event so I don't expect a lot of prolonged icing like you had in that one. We might be able to get a little more snow on the front end than that one had....we'll see though. Prob more sleet in this system too.
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Gets pretty far north on Euro....but yeah youll see a sharp cutoff on the northeast side due to the blocking shoving everything east once it reaches a certian point.
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There's a non-linear response to the QPF too....when we get this thing swinging up west a bit, it basically prevents the WCB from really tapping into the Atlantic and crushing us. When it's a bit further east/south, it really goes to town.
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This thing def hits a brick wall and goes due east....we just gotta hope it does it slightly sooner than the 12z runs were showing.
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Euro def gonna be north of 06z
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Yeah once inside of 24h, they usually get most of the weight. Euro has had its share of duds inside of 24h this season.
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GFS/Euro are going to get like 90% of the weight in a 3 day forecast....prob reduced to like 60-70% inside of 48h where NAM and other mesos can pick up some of the slack.
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This would be a full-on cutter if it weren't for the -NAO....but at some point you reach an equilibrium which is where we are close to now...so we see these wobbles....colder, warmer, colder, warmer has been the trend the last 3 or 4 cycles.
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None of these solutions synoptically are drastically different, but as Tip said, these really mild nuances can have large impacts on sensible wx.
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Further east track on the shortwave will produce big QPF....wrapping it up west ala NAM will keep is fairly paltry by comparison...that's basically the larger scale view of how QPF will trend in this.
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This run actually has a better CCB Saturday morning than 06z did for SNE, despite the initial thump being a bit north.
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Confluence was def initially stronger, but the main shortwave looks like it's gaining just a smidge more latitude by 60h.
