ORH_wxman

If it was coherent enough, it would, but it’s all about competing forces. If the mesolow is kind of weak (like on Euro) until it gets further north, then it won’t help as much in southern areas.

No, the snow is accurate. CT actually does pretty well on the front end for snow. It’s just a quick transition through sleet/ZR to rain after the initial snow while NOP keeps the ZR longer…aided by cold tuck too on mesolow.

Wide right. Close but it’s a whiff this run. OP run not useful though for 200+ hour threats.

06z was colder at the height of the storm. Not by a ton but it was a bit colder. But the 12z run did have a better shot of snow on the front end than 06z.

Still close to being parakeets…esp south of pike. I’d like to see a more subtle shift south/east with PV

Need it to cool a bit for more sleet…warms too much aloft for sleet. Want to keep that warm layer +3 or colder. Euro actually flips you to rain and then back to moderate ZR as you cold tuck…good location there for any cold tucking (really caused a lot of ZR damage back in 2008 in Essex county)

Euro has a decent shot of snow prior to ptype changes. Like 3-6” for most of SNE.

Euro Over interior. Esp ORH county and into S NH but it’s further south for a while before eventually warming SOP.

PV shifting west is bad so I think we’re screwed unless it comes back east a little. The 50/50 low has definitely trended stronger today though so that tries to offset it some…so there’s potential to get this pretty cold if PV can revert back to 00z.

Meanwhile, Ukie is rains to Maine after a bit of frozen on the front end.

Canadian would be Phil over interior too I think. Once you track meso over the cape, it’s over.

Yep and down to Kevin in N CT…as much as we want to tease him on missing it, it would prob lock in for a lot of the interior…maybe even down to Wolfie’s area too on that look.

Get ready for Phil over interior…mesolow already showing up at 114 SE of LI looking to track near Cape

50/50 low is offsetting it a lot this run.

Heights over maritimes and Nova Scotia are lower though at 102. Could be a battle.

GFS west and weaker with PV through 78h. She’s coming northwest this run.

Potential Phil ice over interior that run.

Synoptically, I’m mostly in agreement with Tip on the setup wanting to favor this pressing a bit more. You start with a very cold antecedent airmass (850 temps between -15c and -20c over much of New England on Friday). You have a 50/50 low that is actively strengthening at the same time the block is pushing south…these will act to lower heights over southeastern Canada….but that said, there’s still enough room if that PV tries to “lobe-out” a bit to the west and southwest, we could plausibly sneak this sucker up northwest enough with surgical precision to manifest the least interesting solution possible. In any normal winter or group of winters (given the last 2 years prior to this), I’d say fade the northwest guidance and hedge the southeast guidance…but we seem to find ways to maximize the pain around here so I’m paying plenty of attention to the rainers showing up. Let’s see if we get any help at 12z.

No we don’t truly warm sector…though after the CAD mixes out it could get pretty mushy for 6-8 hours.

Yes I think it’s a pretty bad setback. Though I’m willing to see if 12z provides more clarity…it was weird to see the EPS not follow the OP run when we’re getting inside D6. Usually they trend the same direction once you’re getting out of clown range. But it might be a red flag that the ensembles didn’t follow the OP.

Really gotta watch the Cape. It almost tilts a little ENE and maybe they can get into the goodies for a few hours. Gonna be close but Bruce Willis is lurking with those 850 vectors.

00z was def less amped but the 06z EPS is significantly more amped than 00z EPS…which is weird because the 06z OP run was def flatter….EPS clearly not biting on that flatter look at 06z.

The forcing is just so far west in this. Really nothing to produce good precip. It’s basically a short period of light snow followed by a few pingers and maybe some light ZR over interior…dryslot and maybe some rotting 30s before FROPA. The primary is actually going to end up going pretty close to DTW and then solidly west of Lake Ontario…even further west than the CLE to Toronto track from a couple days ago….which is already going too far west…if you recall, I said we want the primary more in that ERI-BUF-ROC corridor for good dynamics and a front end thump here. We’re so far west of that now that even 1-2” will be a stretch…there’s just not much forcing when you track the main vort so far west.

Let’s go 4-6” and then some Phil ice over the interior like the 06z euro has.

Who cares…just stop replying to his posts if they bother you. When it’s an obvious troll post, it speaks for itself. There’s a reason most don’t respond to it.