ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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18z GFS is a little more amped early on and then ends up maybe slightly less so when it passes by us...kind of a similar result to 12z. On a smaller scale, it had the CF further west, so it's not crushing metrowest this run with ice, but ORH county still gets a good hit.
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Yeah kind of matches my anecdotal memory to my knowledge of ice climo in central MA....feels like that CNE band that was just north of the big boy stuff in 2008 is due for a biggie. I know you studied some of this prior so was curious....thanks.
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Feb '95 was pretty solid in S NH....not sure how far north the good stuff got. It wasn't historic, but a solid 3/8 to perhaps 1/2 radial ice in spots. Also had a decent icer into S NH in Jan 2007....wanna say 1/15/07 it was. But again, not sure how far north it was contaminated by IP.
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Not overly exciting but may need to watch for OES pushing east to west tomorrow afternoon/evening ahead of the main system....flow comes onshore and it's pretty cold in that 900-925 range with temps between -8C and -10C in that layer....so easily supports OES ice crystals. A few spots could see a C-1" type thing.
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He's hitting all the weenie benchmarks recently....tracking every HRRR run for 1-2" of slush last week and then doing the ZFP/point-click fetish for a 5-6 day storm.
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CNE just got blasted in 2008 (along with parts of SNE).....I'd think that corridor from dendrite in C NH up into CAD-land in Maine is due for a big one though....they were too far north for massive ice in 2008. That area obviously got hit in 1998, but thats working on over 25 years now. That one was obviously historic, but even just a pretty nasty half-inch radial ice storm is likely overdue there. Paging @OceanStWxfor ice storm climo.
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Prob take the under almost everywhere on that map. Maybe monadnocks reach 3".
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Happened in the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm. We had about 3 inches on the front end of that and then a ton of ZR on top of it. If anything, I think snow would make it worse by weighting down limbs more. ZR will accrete on snow just fine.
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You can’t tell people not to worry about it if everyone is actively tracking it. Otherwise we wouldn’t even bother to look beyond D7. It might come back…or it could just keep trending SE into zero because the PV overwhelmed it. There’s a reason it’s mostly useless to track this far out.
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We should test it out and see if you think half an inch of ice all over everything classifies as an ice storm if there’s snow prior to it.
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EPS def has plenty of Phil members for icing over interior for this weekend (and actually still has nearly 6” of snow in the mean for the pike region). Unlike the 06z run, the EPS is a bit SE of the OP run.
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If it was coherent enough, it would, but it’s all about competing forces. If the mesolow is kind of weak (like on Euro) until it gets further north, then it won’t help as much in southern areas.
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No, the snow is accurate. CT actually does pretty well on the front end for snow. It’s just a quick transition through sleet/ZR to rain after the initial snow while NOP keeps the ZR longer…aided by cold tuck too on mesolow.
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Wide right. Close but it’s a whiff this run. OP run not useful though for 200+ hour threats.
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06z was colder at the height of the storm. Not by a ton but it was a bit colder. But the 12z run did have a better shot of snow on the front end than 06z.
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Still close to being parakeets…esp south of pike. I’d like to see a more subtle shift south/east with PV
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Need it to cool a bit for more sleet…warms too much aloft for sleet. Want to keep that warm layer +3 or colder. Euro actually flips you to rain and then back to moderate ZR as you cold tuck…good location there for any cold tucking (really caused a lot of ZR damage back in 2008 in Essex county)
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Euro has a decent shot of snow prior to ptype changes. Like 3-6” for most of SNE.
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Euro Over interior. Esp ORH county and into S NH but it’s further south for a while before eventually warming SOP.
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PV shifting west is bad so I think we’re screwed unless it comes back east a little. The 50/50 low has definitely trended stronger today though so that tries to offset it some…so there’s potential to get this pretty cold if PV can revert back to 00z.
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Meanwhile, Ukie is rains to Maine after a bit of frozen on the front end.
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Canadian would be Phil over interior too I think. Once you track meso over the cape, it’s over.
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Yep and down to Kevin in N CT…as much as we want to tease him on missing it, it would prob lock in for a lot of the interior…maybe even down to Wolfie’s area too on that look.
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Get ready for Phil over interior…mesolow already showing up at 114 SE of LI looking to track near Cape
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50/50 low is offsetting it a lot this run.
