ORH_wxman

Could be a nice period of moderate to heavy snow over eastern areas looking at this loop. Filling in too south of HVN

It def can score some coups. It’s why we follow it more than a model like the ICON or some other bizarre high short term resolution model. It’s just hard to tell when it’s right beforehand.

Model war continues. RAP too is somewhat south but not as much as HRRR

Def a model war now between the short term mesos and others. RAP and HRRR continue to cool and also look better for the CCB tomorrow in eastern SNE while the other guidance sans 18z GFS has been trending warmer and maybe a little late with the CCB.

Some of the soundings in the CCB look almost convective. There’s prob gonna be some TSSN in that if those soundings verify.

Still not very hopeful for 1/10 south of about dendrite but maybe it trends just a bit more. 1/13 could still end up a lot better. But that storm could also but rains to Maine. High stakes.

And hrrr keeps pounding on the front end. 17z run is big from CT to SE MA even on the front end.

Weak sauce on the front end thump but Kraft is looking good

Noticed the hrrr keeps cooling now…esp down there.

Some of the mesos weren’t bad down there. It’ll be interesting to track the CCB part. That’s where the biggest bust potential is in SE MA.

Also we have that decent high to the north…something we couldn’t buy to save our lives last winter…so even though the wind is still off the water for the coast with the somewhat tucked low track, that high is helping to funnel in lower dewpoint air which acts to help keep it cooler just off the deck with evaporational cooling/wetbulbing.

It helps to look just off the deck. So often last year we had like 0C to -1C at 925mb. This is significantly colder so that modeled warm layer is very shallow right near the sfc…that’s often a good signal that you’ll accumulate a lot easier at 32-33 than if you’re already dealing with waterlogged melting aggregates.

Emergency meeting for an excommunication?

Yeah the post count is going to look like a sine wave most likely if ensemble guidance is any indication. Very little during the snowstorm and then a big spike during the cutter (perhaps two if 1/13 cuts) then back down again as pattern really goes colder with potential snow threats. We’ll return for verification in a couple weeks.

Anyone should’ve seen this whiff coming from days away based on that 250mb jet streak map. We’re a bunch of idiots.

Krafty finish too. That’s a big hit

Nice runs overall overnight. 3k NAM went wild for eastern areas too. Seems like the onset has slowed down a bit since yesterday. Much if CT waits until late evening (maybe closer to mid-evening in far sw zones)…except still gotta watch that weird OES type look for northeast MA/SE NH a bit earlier.

That’s a nice stinger for E MA on Sunday afternoon. Seems like all the models are showing that at 00z so far. Could be brief blizzard conditions with a flash freeze temp crash. There aren’t a ton of situations that ever happens…the ones I can think of are 12/9/05, 3/8/05 and maybe 2/2/15 near BOS for places that were east of the CF…then it crashed to like 12F with blizzard conditions that afternoon/evening,lol. I don’t think this one will be as bad as those examples but it’s something to watch. Can’t rule out a really nasty 3-4 hour period.

Oof…not sure why I missed that. I just assumed it was a r/s line.

Toss that ptype shading.

A foot of snow on Belichick’s noggin Sunday?

That H5 depiction at 42 is pretty nice. Gotta be some -EPV in that sucker.

Boredom’s while we wait for the NAM

Has a nice stinger Sunday though, lol

The initial CF isn’t that strong. But it becomes ridiculous by Sunday midday. Here’s 1pm on Sunday on 18z euro..:this is where the potential big bust could happen…you get 40-50 knots of inflow slamming into that CF and someone could pound like crazy for 2-4 hours