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baltosquid

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Everything posted by baltosquid

  1. baltosquid
    ICON-EPS has one lonely captured member… this is an improvement from 12z, when it had none.
  2. baltosquid
    H5 looked a bit better for both the RGEM and ICON but still letting the surface get away from us before we could capture. Rather this than getting worse but a long ways to go to get anywhere near the GFS of even 06z, let alone 12z.
  3. baltosquid
    NAM doesn’t appear as flat as the euro at least. Trough appears a bit sharper as well.
  4. baltosquid
    NAM seems to only disagree more with the GFS over the Alberta low placement this run. It’s a bit north from 12z and a bit less interactive I think. But idk. This feature is too complex for me honestly.
  5. baltosquid
    NAM is running. If we can’t even get a NAMing out of this threat then that just makes the GFS even crazier.
  6. baltosquid
    The JMA from today has been out on TT and is indeed more GFS like than some of the others. I think that was just a mispost. It’s still not as crazy as the GFS.
  7. baltosquid
    Anyone with weatherbell want to share what the Korean model thinks? Might as well cast a wide net. oh, and that French one! Surely one of them will have something…
  8. baltosquid
    My suggestion for that entry: “You are mentally ill. Put down tropical tidbits.”
  9. baltosquid
    Need @psuhoffman to add “The GFS and JMA show snow” to his chart
  10. baltosquid
    FWIW the euro (all of them, Op, AI, ens, ensAI) did trend to a stronger wave… it’s just such a shitty arrangement of pieces. Idk what it would take to get them to play nice from ~36 on like the GFS has. But that’s the problem we’ve come to know quite well. Crowded NS stepping on its own feet.
  11. baltosquid
    This is not going to tilt, obviously. GFS consolidates those. Euro does not.
  12. baltosquid
    Worse than 06z Euro AI I mean
  13. baltosquid
    Yes, a bit. Looks like the wave interaction was worse and it was more positively tilted.
  14. baltosquid
    Prepare for strong emotions in a direction yet to be determined
  15. baltosquid
    GEFS showing a mean of 6-10 inches 10:1 less than 100 hours out would turn into quite the fail lol.
  16. baltosquid
    GEFS looks good. Just following its weenie leader.
  17. baltosquid
    Yeah UKMET wasn’t as flat as 00z but it is still garbage and nothing like the GFS unfortunately. Ptype problems
  18. baltosquid
    Actually maybe the UKMET is not so bad. It’s no GFS though. Don’t think temps are gonna be friendly either.
  19. baltosquid
    As expected, the UKMET looks less amped
  20. baltosquid
    If they’re running it out of a MARC train, that would explain some things
  21. baltosquid
    Snow too heavy, ground gives way. The DC snow hole.
  22. baltosquid
    I mean I shared some pics earlier of the euro’s look and to summarize, it really isn’t unfair to say this is a delicate setup that can still boom with some minor adjustments even to the most hostile model depictions. Now the GFS goes ahead and decides to make as perfect of a set of adjustments as possible to improve its already ideal look… don’t really buy that. But something more sane that gives us a great storm? I don’t think it would be crazy.
  23. baltosquid
    I would be up all night trying to keep up with shoveling… otherwise I’d be trapped.
  24. baltosquid
    Don’t get excited about the Canadian as it will likely just be the RGEM with minor changes. First chance to get some agreement is the UKMET
  25. baltosquid
    Truly cannot draw up that track any better.
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