baltosquid

Actually pardon me. It was in the GFS analogs for the MS valley. But there’s a look there still. Will check later today again.

You know, the trailing piece that might kick/might help climb/might phase had this look to it on the NAM that made me want to check the analogs. While it doesn’t show up for the northeast with the 00z NAM, January 2000 DOES show up in the Mississippi valley analogs. I wonder if we get that in top analogs here too for this sort of look on the 12z NAM.

Yeah heights higher out front but broader trough. Not sure how it will respond

Man it wouldn’t take much. On balance guidance looks tiltier at 06z. GFS is just pretty much perfect in getting that look setup for capture, rest don’t quite figure it out. But give me another run of tiltier stuff… 12z, MAYBE 18z is the money run. I think by then either the GFS joins everyone else in dropping the big coastal or at least one other global sees it too.

Just a lot of pieces to this. Can pick out so many little features within the larger trough. And every model does things quite differently. Just glad to see the Euro did not pull a one step forward, two steps back from 18z to 00z. Bed time...

UKMET is gonna come up short - still not constructive with the stream interactions it seems. But a step in the right direction upstairs I think...

UKMET is more GFS like with the NS at 39. We'll see how that translates.

Fair, don't see a lot of these things even modeled (beyond one off runs in fantasy land)... I don't have much of a reference point for the noise threshold on these things!

Earlier today we got there on the GFS depiction via the waves phasing nicely. Now, while it isn't as gaudy (read: as insane), it works WITHOUT the perfect phase which is nice. Get enough energy into the southern wave and back off the NS just enough and it still can get a great pass that brings the coastal in. I'll be honest, the ticking east has my permission to stop! But seriously, we had to come down from the insanity of 12z anyway. Edit: to be clear, this is still insane. And no one should expect this yet.

If the GFS wins this... FV3 Euro for 1 year. I don't make the rules. If the Europeans are so meteorologically talented, they can make it work!

ICON ensemble also comes quite decently further west.

Yup, bringing the coastal closer should juice that up. I think the only ways it would die completely are if the low goes too far OTS (trends seem optimistic that won't happen) or the coastal comes so far west it's just, well, a coastal.

Either way it is better than 18z even with the surface low rejecting a capture.

RGEM is perplexing. I feel like the surface SHOULD be further west with that look? Better h5 look than the ICON I think. But it's further east. Idk. I really like the h5 changes. Just perplexing.

RGEM is intriguing... I don't know if it will get there but it is definitely gonna try. Looks eager to turn the corner. But may end up in the ICON ballpark, idk.

ICON is trying. Can't reel in the surface low this time (unless it somehow gets it from frame 72->78) but brought it much closer.

VERY early on the ICON (18hrs) but the Alberta vort looks a bit better oriented and the southern wave is more west and a bit deeper.

big improvement with lows

Uh that vort orientation looks not insignificantly better very early on the euro. I will shut up now.

Surface was not a whole not different on Ukie BUT the waves were MUCH closer to consolidation this run.

Frame 78 my goodness. Not the funny purple blob on pivotal from 12z but literally same idea for all intents and purposes.

She’s a beaut

The run has begun.

I mean the exact placement of the IVT is harder to parse… I think getting a better h5 pass and something a bit more amped are some clear trends to hope for. The GFS isn’t going to be right. We are not going to get crushed by a sub 980 over the Chesapeake. But a trend towards something less pathetic is good.

ICON-EPS has one lonely captured member… this is an improvement from 12z, when it had none.