baltosquid
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Everything posted by baltosquid
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Storm just gets stuck right over the bay lol. Dumping.
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In the grand scheme of things this really looks like a "noise" run. Obviously the delicacy of the setup means big changes to snow totals but the things getting messed up compared to 12z are things that are probably on a scale much too fine to worry about right now. It is still very close.
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Higher heights in the west as well.
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I think a lot of what goes wrong on the ICON stems from where the PV is, and the increased interaction it is having with the north stream energy we want to dive in and phase.
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A bit, but I do like the higher heights behind the storm. If the energy interactions were a bit cleaner it probably would turn out quite nice. Nothing that won't change run to run at this range.
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Would definitely be a northern crew favoring event considering that. In the city I know I'm gonna be nervous about how much we would lose to the fight to changeover in the event a storm actually occurs.
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You mean 120? Or does the 06/18 ICON go further on other providers? But yeah it was not too far off, just slow to gather all the pieces into the low we'd want to see.
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Maybe it pops a late coastal after 120 but idk. It is tilting but just not a clean enough deal. Oh well. On to the GFS (which I won't handle...)
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Yeah by 108 you can see how the low is not diving in and cutting off in Tennessee, but instead Indiana/Ohio.
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By 96 it might still have a chance. Heights behind it are very strong, might be able to make up for the pieces starting further apart. But I still think it won't quite get there.
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Not sure I like the ICON at 78hrs. Northern and southern streams appear further apart. PV nudged west and closer to the northern stream piece and may serve to squash things later down the line. We'll see.
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So, maybe an "anchor" makes more sense, as it keeps the bottom of the trough from "getting away" and tilting negative. Can we throw another complete misnomer onto the pile?
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Biggest takeaway from 12z is that we’re headed in the right direction. Doesn’t seem like anything trended badly. Curious to see the EPS-AIFS and EPS; an increased coastal signal would make me feel a lot better that we’re catching the start of a trend and not a blip.
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GEFS definitely has more coastals for storm 1
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CMC moved in the right direction at least. I doubt we get anything like a clean consensus at 12z. Still, not ready to let go of the boom scenario after the GFS.
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AIGFS also was a step in the right direction, though is still in the light moderate category
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One thing I noticed with this run is the PV was notably further away from the storm which was able to cut off and turn much better.
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This thing ain't ready to have a ceiling put on it. Who says ops can't lead the way?
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CAMs suggest some localized snows tomorrow on the backend of today's storm. Maybe someone can luck out and get some measurable stuff.
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Still just can't tilt how we need it to under the big ol' PV. Needs more room or more helpful interplay. Still think it can get there.
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Maybe I missed it but I did not see any AIGFS discussion for the 15th. Looked better at h5 I think? Trough seems stronger and tilts more negatively a smidge earlier, but still a bit too late.
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CMC was wester with the gulf piece but NS did not cooperate and it was too positive. Hopeful it can evolve positively from there though.
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Fan of this run. Just glad to see a coastal pop like that in the vicinity. Digital snow for this is worthless at this range. Establish the feature first, then reel it in. The storm a few days later is a great look too.
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DESI is fun and lets you make charts like this. From the National Blend of Models.
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I think they're good for different things, TN to see how far west things get started (we want it further west than it is now) and NC to see how the development goes, and because if it is getting clobbered there's hope for a north trend (though not as much this year apparently). But I'm just mashing together a few data points and having fun with it so, take what you will and I could be loopy
