Torch Tiger

Yeah if you want SNE ImPAcTs, the offshore track is better

Hopefully Debbie emerges sooner than forecast and intensifies quickly!

Debbie downer

I hope NYC/SW Ct gets a foot of rajn

I-95 washed away on that ICON run!

Looking good!

hopefully the decaying system stalls overhead!

all we're realistically after are hydro/flooding concerns at this point, so that run actually looks great

that and a lot more

I am hoping for the ultimate weenie solution, storm stays JUST offshore GA/SC/NC feeling out the coast. does a little wobble east near HAT, then cruises NNE into RI

You want the south to flood with no consequences up here

nice 6-12" zone there

GGEM drops 3-7"

Let's goooo!

St. Johnsbury=St. Gonesbury!

Hopefully it does the weak/inland route and not east. Let's get some crushing rains!

Every winter, too. perpetual autumn

'38 vs. Connie/Diane, no question what a real weenie would choose Unless you have some flood obsession/fetish

Yup yup, 1955?! Let's go!

Yeah I'm game But for TC season, and you will agree, it's mostly about the wind. Little wind impacts (Floyd, Bertha et al) and it's a snoozer

Never say never since the "storm" hasn't developed yet. The size and scope of the storm will have an impact on the U/A surrounding it and models won't near see those deets for several days. However yes, '38 headed in

It's a long shot for a scrape or a weakened TD/TS landfall, and a near impossible for a hurricane to landfall in SNE.

000 WTNT44 KNHC 022036 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However, the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 25 kt. The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward, and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas receive the strongest impacts. There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the Atlantic after 72 h.