Ruin

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It could be -20 2M temp right now but if we get an easterly fetch straight from the Atlantic, it will raise fast.  Water temp is 46 in VA beach right now and 43 at Cape May. Not happy just talking what the model is showing. 

 

 

 

 

ah that kind of sucks hope they dont stuck around 

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's actually clearing out here so it will be your way shortly.  Thinking we have a shot at zero tonight. 

yeah its thinned out but I didnt see any cloud cover for tonight or even today. was afraid it would keep the temps up high enough to almost confirm the torch. so many times clouds come in and help the temps over night. but said storm is due tomorrow after noon so clouds maybe 10am

Does any one know whats up with this cloud cover near harrisburg?

30 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

One of the infamous 1994 storms laid down 6 inches of heavy sleet here . It was incredibly loud for hours and hours .

it was very pretty I dunno if they have different types of sleet but it looked like snow. i was off school for 2 days cause it wouldnt melt.

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

CBS 21in Harrisburg is saying 2-4 snow and the event is over by midnight Sunday night. So many different forecast solutions.

yes this abc27 was saying like 930 10pm rain

So took doggo for a walk and noticed cloud cover over head mostly cloudy about %80?? what is this from

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Im rooting for the Euro evolution..strong further north primary. 

This was late 80s or early 90s we had almost 2 inchs of sleet we ate a meal at the state restaurant. we all thought it was snow till we went out and heard it. tho honestly it wasnt that bad to drive or walk in. 

well if its worth any thing forecast high was 22. I didnt see it peg past 18 Im right near the airport too. forecast low went down 2 more degrees from 14 to 12 Ive seen some impressive cad before but if this does truly goes that far west I dunno id rather just be fry slotted 

I guess baby steps for a better snow? did it slightly come in south east? one thing I find strange abc has us changing over to rain around 10pm sun night only a few hours of snow. but updated wwa says its in effect till 1pm mon? talk about confusing 15 hours give or take from when abc27 says going over to rain till the wwa stops thats just  lol

Wow this is just sad 

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

That map is general Precip, not snow…

I know its liquid precip 

How far east would this have to go to get back into a decent snow event 100 miles?

1 minute ago, canderson said:

It is GD cold out.  11. 

CTP says the LSV flips to rain before midnight. You just have to hope the thump is heavy. 

Great discussion this morning from them: 

Moisture will surge northward behind robust isentropic lift and
likely produce a period of moderate snow with potential for an
embedded west-east oriented band of heavy heavy snow (1 inch/hr
rates possible) moving from south to north early Sunday night
(00-06Z Mon). This band will slow down and pivot to become SW-NE
oriented over Warren/McKean Counties and points northeast from
there, with potential for 1-2 inch/hr rates continuing over
Warren and McKean Counties from 06z into the predawn hours.

South and east of the I-80/I-99 corridor, thermal profiles are
expected to warm above freezing first in the 750-850 hPa layer
and then also at the sfc across the lower Susquehanna Valley.
Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain across the south
starting around 10pm and the wintry mix is expected to approach
I-80 by around midnight. Sfc temps will likely warm above
freezing just before midnight across the Lower Susq, bringing a
change to plain rain. Above freezing sfc temps will then push
farther north along the Susquehanna valley toward Williamsport.
In addition to the warm advection, a dry slot will bring a
ribbon of decreased RH in midlevels for much of our central and
eastern zones, leading to decreased SLRs first and then
potentially the loss of cloud ice, resulting in a wider area of
light freezing rain / drizzle that could extend through much of
the CWA with the exception of the far northwest, where the
pivoting snow band will continue. Freezing rain may result in a
glaze of ice, but will generally be low impact due to snow
already on the ground and then temps warming above freezing in
some spots.

 

ABC 27 video on the site future radar claims 930/10pm for the change over god I hope they are wrong 

6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

With the Euro, this is all snow for most before the flip.   

wow very sad ouch

Maybe the Volcano that blew its top in Tonga will change something lol

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

lol then you hear the most accurate forecast intro its like sure you can be accurate if you change it 20 times before it starts.

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They dropped most of the Harrisburg area & surrounding LSV from 6 -10 to 3-6, do that is a healthy drop.

They have on the website we are to change to rain by 10pm lol and the storm starts like at 4?

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to make sure anyone interested in meteorology and wants to follow along with storms now and of the future; the upper level evolution is the driver the atmosphere. What happens up top will reflect what happens below it. Once you understand the dynamics of the levels 700mb and up, you can be a better forecaster. Cold and warm air will always have the ability to be washed out by an evolving surface and low-mid level pattern. This storm is no different. 

Sampling is a smaller issue at range than it ever has been due to GOES 16/17 and the countless reconnaissance we have delivered over the course of the past 10-15 years. Yes, some minor shifts that could play major components to a pattern evo can occur when a specific feature is sampled over land, but the discourse of, "Changing to tunes of 100s of miles" is ancient history. Overall, this has been a pretty well documented storm with minor adjustments here and there, but in a setup where every 10 miles counts and timing is everything, they are magnified. 

I didn't post last night for two reasons:

1) I was tired and my wife was finally off. I wanted to spend some time with her and we watched some of our favorite shows. It was a wonderful evening.

2) I wanted to see if models held serve on what the hi-res guidance has been insinuating recently, and it looks like they are. This will lead to a forecast shift myself, which I'll have today. 

For those interested in meteorology, I will preface by saying this will be a sight to watch unfold. Result you are looking for may be damned, but take it from someone only getting more wind and absolutely no precip from 2000 miles away; enjoy the meteorology and learn, or I would find something to do on Sunday evening that will take your mind off it all. Ice will be coming, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Pattern is still loaded in the long range. We are okay for now. 

Enjoy your Saturday!! Life is too short to worry about what Mother Nature is gonna do.

"We'll weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether we like it or not!" 

i agree I feel this will be a now cast event. To much going on with the cold air with all the highs bouncing around and dynamic weather pattern and the Low hasnt even really started to decided where it wants to go.

my area lost most of its snow cover from the recent 40s temps. maybe a slushy 2 inchs before we had the big freeze now every thing is solid ice.

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is a weird track which alot of people are perplexed because of the amount of cold air before the storm arrives. The upper level low digs in the back of the storm which causes a tug movement.

Thank you this is all I was asking it just feels strange.

and look at it now its going to go into south central PA straight north. All the talk about cold air surprising this storm went out the window in less then 12 hours. I mean for heavens sake going from right at the coast then to push in western VA in some models is crazy. I even made a joke watch this turn into a apps runner and by god it did. at this point I wouldnt be surprised if it ended up in western PA or if it decided to go more east

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Your previous post is even worse. The synoptics support the inland track. It is a stacked low and the advertised track has been consistently inland. 

Now yes but they did have a few runs off the coast riding up the coast then they started going inland. To say the models have always been inland is inaccurate. Im not disputing they are inland now. I am simply talking to the fact that long time mets are calling this odd. Im simply getting at its a now casting event. good night and good luck hope we dont get to much ice.

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You should be weenie tagged.

The models have been consistent with the idea of a closed h5 low tracking inland. The 850 low tracks west of DC into central PA, and the LL jet out of the E/SE is screaming.  Go ahead and melt because the ground truth in your yard won't match your unrealistic expectations, but the guidance is sound.

I was just asking a question? I heard on air mets say they never or its rare to see a storm jump so far to the west after showing out to sea off the south east coast. 2 its a very odd track to keep pushing more and more west one of the models has it in eastern VA then out of no where pushes it into western va then into southern PA

Are these models being fed bad info? something that isnt sampled etc?

Does any one really buy any thing these models are saying? I mean they do most likely have some trends that will happen but at this point the storm is going to the midwest with how far north west it keeps going. I heard to mets say I never seen a Low travel this route after dipping to the gulf and then just keeps wanting to go farther and farther west