Ruin

Since everyone's doing observations 19 at Middletown cloudy light breeze 

I think this is a win they say the highest temperature today is only supposed to be 29 now before it was 34 for the daily so maybe we hold onto more snow before the ice? Last forecast st 34 had mdt changing to just rain at 930isj pm

Does anyone know how accurate car thermometers are posted a pic above I said four Fahrenheit my digital thermometer at the time said 8.9 and my normal thermometer said nine 

ok went to warm up the car cause of how cold it is.

down to 8 4 temps lower then forecasted 

down to 9 any one still around 

Down to 10 forecast low 12

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Euro is excellent. I'll sign the contract.

Imagine if this came even more east hey a guy can dream

ding ding ding before 1 am we hit our forecasted over night low in my area. 12 lets get to 9 lol

1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said:

Interesting thing i noticed here. The temps have consistently been lower than forecasted for. Thats a good sign that the cold air is a little more stubborn than the models are predicting. Obviously this is different at 850 than at the surface, but still thought it was interesting to see the temps are starting colder than forecasted

Could you say that the cold air has snuck down a little farther south

Lets go id be happy with a heavy thumb of 6 inch snow before any ice to help protect the snow then a bit of rain with temps falling later in the day

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs looks better for most of LSV

baby steps I know we dont have much time but maybe?

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

We do well with CAD but we can’t fight off a southerly influx. 
 

In 2019 we had a similar southerly flow than flipped snow to sleet and killed our expected 6”. We had 2.5” iirc of nearly all sleet. 

true I cant remember the years but these storms I remember were coming from the south and were said to produce warmer temps they never did for some reason and it stayed all snow for a few storms. the other storms we had a nasty ice sleet storm That was the early 90s storm.

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Warm air nearly always wins here - almost always. It’s why I don’t buy the euro. I’ll be pretty shocked if I get 3” snow/sleet before rain washes it mostly away. 

Not true id say %75 of the time yes but %25 I remember storms that for some reason the temps didnt get even to 30 even tho we were in the mid 20s other times we have been in the teens and just got to 20. its rare but it happens friend ive seen it. Talking about the warm air wins comment you posted should of been clear

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs bumped east with snowfall 

how far of a bump we talking and what location? 

 

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Actually that's a good question.  Again my 30 years of actively following weather there's always surprises with strong coastals like this.  I'm hugging the Euro/ hrrr/ icon because I can lol

lol this is why im holding out hope the models just cause they all some what agree dont have a hold on it as many thing they do.

So real question here given this path is so very unique and never really happens much. how much climate wise do you think the models are missing for info? they are cycled patterns when the models are being put together right like thousands of times at least to see the different variations of outcomes? like this storm is %5 chance to happen liek the models are saying im just info picking cause I want to know

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  I played at the Carlisle Mj mall but same games.  Whoever made the joysticks for games like mortal kombat knew their stuff because  I body blow, body blowed like a mad man.   I also loved the USA vs a ussr stick hockey game with the plexiglass dome cover.  

oh fragging joy 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

This weekend: Big snows to my N&W

Next weekend: Big snows to my S&E

Following weekend: Steelers win the AFC title. 

I was just listening to Meat Loaf's 2 Out Of 3 Ain't Bad.

I would love for the steelers to sit kc and patty back down at the kids table lol. its a far stretch tho. 

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is some a plus nowcasting! 

I honestly could see something fishy happen the storm goes way east or it goes to the lakes does a loopy loop and pin wheels and comes back at us. cause we have no storms behind it really

12 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Following this is just straight confusion...this storm needs to stop being bipolar on the models. Also currently sitting at 14.2F

I was off dealing with some irl stuff whats up with the storm now vs the models

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Temp down to 11.3

still 15 im about to kick my thermometer 

Holding at 15 last 1 1/2 hours I hope we can dip to our forecast low or maybe 1-3 below it. 

I wont be surprised if models shows this going to lake Erie 

Local news now saying we go down to 8 tonight hmmm