Ruin

dont buy what these models say 

got to love the virga show on radar last night go out today under mostly cloudy skies and its almost 50? didnt think it would be that warm today 

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

MDT recorded 3.2” snow. 

see I always find this funny as fuck why? Harrisburg normally uses hia as where they get the snow report from but then Middletown usually uses the airport location too but yet they get 2 different measurement's in every storm. My dad lives right near the airport you can see it from his yard. the grassy areas got 5.5 inches the side walks about 3.7

Most of the snow that fell melted all rdy 

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm went over 4" close to midnight. Light to moderate snow here still. My prediction was 4". Maybe I can squeeze out a bit more. I'm guess I'll end up with 5"-6". Which the euro had been spitting out here for a number of days. Still not a lick of wind. That is surprising

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I had maybe 3 inchs on the grass and a very sloppy inch and a half on the road and sidewalks on the way out. it was laying pretty good on the way back but didnt bother to measure 

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Come on heavier band… keep drifting south…just another 20 miles…you can do it!

(now I’m talking to the radar…lol…this storm really has got to me…)

I was driving around for a bit and yeah heavier snow in that band around harrisburg 

57 minutes ago, canderson said:

My sidewalks in the city are 90% covered (everywhere but under a tree)

sidewalks here are just soaked cars grass have a slushy wet 2 inchs maybe only spot on the road that has any coverage is where the giant ice/snow pile was for weeks that kept the temps on that part of the road cold enough 

1 hour ago, HBGCPA10 said:

Nothing on the concrete sidewalks on streets yet. 35 degrees. I don't think they even pre-treated the roads.

yeah its not gonna lay on the sidewalks unless you get very heavy bands which it doesnt look like we are under light to maybe mod at times 

59 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Should be framed in the weenie louve. I'm glad I listened to my gut about this one and didn't get invested. I almost didn't post my analysis very early this morning. I feel bad it ended up verifying to such an extent.

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got to love it stayed rain the longest around harrisburg lol like wth 

31 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

As much as I want the snow too, it is fairly interesting and rare to see this set-up where the LSV is one of the only locations still reporting rain (with snow now falling in all surrounding directions)... reflected in the station mesonet too for temperatures still in the upper 30s here.

it happens 9 times out of 10 the wrong way and 1 time out of 10 right way

23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Have you ever bought into any model?  The constant negative undertones are tiring…

yes I have just recently in fact the big snow we had this year. 

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

We are trying to understand why you are here. You offer nothing but pessimism and everything you hate about models but offer little to the real discussion. For many of us this is fun even when jt doesn’t work out as per the best snowmap seen during the last couple days. We too are bummed but know better as this isn’t our first rodeo. 

Im trying to understand why people always defend the models I dont question your right to be here. I have every right to be here I dont attack any one like ive been attacked by some. I go after how bad the models are over the years and say we deserve better. no one can ever give me a honest answer how accurate the models are. the only helpful reply I once got is they dont really track or have a website for that.

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

be careful the forum will call you a troll for voicing your opinion lol

pretty much all rdy do because I model hate because of things like today that happen. they dont like me calling out how shitty models are. they fail to understand Im a snow lover but also understand how shitty these models can be 

47 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

At what time do we call this storm a bust this evening if it’s still not snowing lol? 

yeah pretty much a major bust 

im sorry im not gonna buy any models saying what ever lol. if they cant get this storm right 12-24 hours out how can I even think they can get a few days to a few weeks out 

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Boxing Day 2010 didn’t have the inverted trough and had more of an actual sharp precip gradient from nothing to a bunch. This system has plenty of precip thrown back into central PA right now. Temps are the issue, I said a couple times the last few days temps and rates were going to be a key thing for I-81 corridor and NW. Unfortunately I didn’t expect surface temps to be warm enough to actually cause a lot of this stuff to be rain in the Sus Valley lower elevations today.. I was more worried about rates.

That puts more reliance to make it up on the direct banding from the coastal as it winds up and eventually turns things over as we get towards this evening. The big change there is the formerly aggressive guidance bringing the low in up close is now quickly jumping it ENE over or perhaps just SE of the benchmark. Which actually would be another difference from Boxing Day haha. That tracked straight up well inside the Benchmark to the edge of Cape Cod. The low kicking east faster is going to reduce the time the Sus Valley (esp York/Lancaster) can get any stronger bands from the coastal. 

 

 

 

 

temps are a big problem but also the precip intensity is very light vs what it was suppose to be this allowed the temps to get so high. I got down to 28 last night at 2am only to woke up at 6 to 33 as normal the clouds allowed it to warm up. If the precip would of been at the rate they were calling for we would of been snow all ready hours ago. 

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That was me multiple times. I was corrected by several here (correctly) that the storm isn't the same. However, I stand by my assertion that the pattern is. And that is what is behind these negative changes we're seeing.

yeah it just like how can you be that wrong model was you showed like a mega snow a foot plus only to get nothing. That storm is why I started hating models and see how much bs they spew 

1 minute ago, Storm Clouds said:

Yes while Philadelphia and east got like one to two feet of snow…we are reliving that nightmare. 

I was so pissed that day im like how can you be that wrong with a storm. local mets were like we dodged a bullet here.

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Plenty of time to still score something with this event. We were never really in the bullseye, but let’s let it play out.

see I dont like when people do this revision saying we were never really in it at all not our storm. they were forecasting anywhere from 6-12 inches yea we were not in the heaviest but god damn we could of had as much as the last storm. but now the models say f you I lied to you  

1 minute ago, Storm Clouds said:

Boxing Day 2010 all over again lol…

yeah I forget who mentioned it but yep isnt that the big storm they called for and we just go hours of the radar showing snow and it didnt do shit?

24 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Revised map, I left some room for this to end up a bit better than where the trends are heading but I might not have backed off enough. Totals include what snow has already fallen.

 

Also here’s CTP’s revised snow map, very elevational now. 

this is just sad as fuck and yet nothing will be done with models we will be forced to look at shitty models all the time 

12 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

HRRR still looks fine for Lancaster. I’ve never been a fan of it but I’m assuming it has utility. 

until it doesnt its one model that showed good things for many only for it to fall apart 

So the models bent the knee to gfs for this bs lol

Temp rose to 37 wtf light rain nothing about this rain was forecasted into noon hour gonna have gard time with any accumulation 

Joke of a storm so far usa wins gold in hockey at least