Ruin

48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The storm tomorrow was always a cutter with maybe some snow TV to start...the one after was mostly likely a cutter in recent models as well.  Blame the SER.

Yeah, I know that only the very long-range forecast had this one as a snow eve. But the One saturday  till just recently. All the models had snow or mix, and then all of a sudden. It goes wide left to the lakes again

45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm frustrated too.

HOWEVER...almost every 2023-24 Winter Outlook that I watched/read indicated the same general theme:

• A well above normal December temp wise with little snow (verified perfectly)
• A MILD January (1-3 degrees AN) with snow chances starting during the 2nd half of the month (My calendar is showing today as January 8th)
• A colder, snowy February

Who knows what will happen from here on out, but to this point, the forecast for this winter has been SPOT on. 

True but I remember last year they said very cold tons of snow they were very wrong lol

so next 2 storms are now just rain/lake cutters.  cold air once again being pushed back to later middle of the month. Ive seen this song and dance last 2 years. Im glad we got the 6 inchs of snow here pissed it didnt last longer on the ground stayed cloudy all night sat too temps didnt dip down at all. Im done watching long range models lol I hope you all have fun with the weather tracking tho.

temp down to 29.7 snowing mod close to 5.1 inchs when I was out about 10 minutes ago 

This was about 2:40 pm

yeah about 4 inchs clearing the car off from work. highways are shit. no plow trucks on any interstate I saw 83 81. tho my local town had 6 plows out and streets are way better. not free of snow but way better.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Latest CTP Expected Snow map issued an hour ago is similar to earlier versions today

Lol and here cones the downgrade to advisors 

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, It’s what we do on here, no one is saying any model is right at any point.

We need to look at all guidance & search for a consensus.

Outliers, whether high or low should be tossed.

I just wish the models in this day and age were more accurate 

Really not liking the temps climbing. Went to be at 3am temp was 22. Woke at 7 temp was all rdy 28 now its up to. 32. Was hoping with no sun warm it would only be 26 now

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Maybe hes already Ruined from all this hype.

Bingo

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's what all modeling was showing at this point. It consolidates as the day goes on.

I could of sworn it was more together then this. The broken mess was on its western edge. I've seen to many storms that never really came together. Hope I'm wrong 

Radar looks shifty broken up mess no real soiled mass of precip

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What’s your dew point now?

I am at 19 & MDT is at 20 as of 11 pm

I have been hovering near 20 most of the day.

yeah it went down a point or 2 over the last few hours dp and temp last i looked was 23 

and now its going to be a mix ice storm lol im just about done 

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z GFS on Weatherbell looks very similar to 18z.

Here they both are to compare.

wait they use the same model but show a different snow map? 

14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is all relative.  Rgem lost 3-5 inches for much of the LSV (from the runs at 6Z)  but basically meshing with the other models now.  Still looks good I think.   Rgem was too high.  FV3 gained 3" in some areas it was too low in. 

i understand we dont have a good cold air mass and 2 the moisture field is not as robust and is moving to fast.  given the wind swings from last night through tonight models cut way back but then they back up . i guess good luck to every one 

so all the models are increasing totals again by a bit or holding serve. as I see some forecasts being lowered this is honestly a head scratcher. 

25 minutes ago, Beagles20 said:

I think they had 6 or 7 crews going to be from say West Virginia up through New York state and I believe further north.

Oh nice covering up a good range incase the storm does one thing or another. I remember years back they sent some one to the reported center of a blizzard. It moved like 100 miles south and you could see Jim really pissed off in the middle of light rain and temps in the 40s 

20 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Justin Michaels was set up this PM at the 83/581 interchange near Lemoyne

thanks 

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will likely be heavy at times between noon and 7 pm, then diminish significantly thereafter. A change to mixed precipitation is possible by early evening south and east of interstate 81. Updated for me earlier it was 4-8 so they knocked off 1 inch from the high point not to bad honestly Ill take 5 lol. worked called me and said limited shifts for tomorrow. I go in at 8am tho instead of 10 but I get out at 4. so maybe during the heavy part of the storm 

weather channel was reported to be setting up in harrisburg has any one seen Jim C in harrisburg he loves thundersnow 

13 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

That’s on all the models 

talks in here early about the hrrr model sometimes overdoes precip and or warmer temps lately so who knows. im seeing any where from 1-2 inchs from the nws calling 4-8 but could be close to 10. So I have a 9 inch spread lol better luck in vegas 

19 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s gonna rain a lot - no need for anyone S of MDT to shovel imo

maybe maybe not last night's early this morning signs up a warm tongue coming from MD into southern PA in latest model runs is now showing to be colder and mix or rain is south of PA/MD line. Maybe it will pan out maybe it wont 

at 29/21 went down to pick up food temp was 35 I came out 20 mins later and it was down to 29 when i got back home double checked both thermometers.  Still clear not even high lvl clouds yet. 

so question Im seeing it starts about 10-11 in my area local future radar from the news is saying it ends by 7pm? I was looking at other future radar they have it lasting till 10pm-12am some models suggest wrap around till sunday 10am but normally wrap around doesnt pan out to good in my area.  WSW goes till 10am I think kind of odd the locals showing it ends at 7pm? I know storms tend to end earlier then the alert calls for but more then 12 hours later?