Ruin

so any idea what changed from the 1 model run to the next one to change that much?

Can some one explain too me how 2 days ago we go from cold/dry to maybe a snow storm over the next 7 days. A coastal low/slider just to the south then the next operational run we have a lake cutter and rain all the way to upstate ny and temps in the 50s and after the even 40s when before it was the mid 30s? what key information did the new model run see that had the storm jump thousands of miles back to the west into the lakes?

Big surprise a costal low southern slider turns into a lake cutter lol

If we get no snow from this cold it will be a waste of cold air

so not only didnt it get to the high of 66 like forecasted still 58. This up coming weeks temps were now pushed 10-13 lower from what was just forecasted last friday for next week. I saw near 70 for a few days now highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

I find it more and more they are wrong over the temps low or high then they have ever been before the last 10 years or so.

I feel like they are wrong more often then right about temps

this is the main reason why I just dont trust forecasts/forecasters esp during the winter months. Just like back in the second half of feb that big cold outbreak the temp guidance kept saying was coming got pushed back pushed back and then nothing. Nothing is done when they make huge mistakes it feels every time they upgrade a model they get worse. yeah sure they may have a few storms they get right. but what is the actually accuracy lvl of forecast models? Anywhere I can look that tells me how accurate models are including the temp guidance model?

So much for that cold front we had early fri. My temps yesterday and today are about 8-10 higher then forecasted sitting at 62 when my forecast was 53????

lol I thought when a cold front goes through the next day should be colder? it was 58 fri for me and today 62 not really a cold front was it

lol I dont think that last snow map will even happen any where close in PA maybe ere maybe.

i guess its time for bugs humidity and tstorms soon. At least we got some snow this winter

winter is over sadly at least it was better then last year.

yep no way any of that really lays. it would be a messy wet snow that maybe would take down some trees. ground lvl temp is at 41 throw my thermal camera.

I dont have faith in a storm that far out any way

ground is going to be so warm the next week from 50s and 60s I doubt even if it does snow we get any thing to lay?

I was outside around 2-3 am last night before going to bed had some rain mixed with wet snow. looked on radar and was like yep didnt think anything was said too happen last night. It was like 33 didnt amount to much just damp. Woke up at 7 things were still a bit damp. had to throw a few more logs on the fire today. Only went through 30% of firewood for the season. Plenty of left over wood for many bonfires come summer spring

after the models got the second half of feb cold and crapped the bed now its going to be warmer im just now buying it lol

I find it suspicious that any time the temp guidance says warm it always happens and we get torched. but when it says cold for the up coming week or 2 its right maybe 3 times out of 10

true I still want some one to reply to my post yesterday. I know I wasnt in that band but it still snowed heavy enough to lay during other snow storms Ive seen at night. it took the whole snow storm for it to lay on any thing but the cars.by the end of it just started laying on the grass.

from what I saw no way we even got that much lol

I understand the heavy bands missed me where im at and my dad is. But it was snowing moderate rates for 3-4 hours and the temp got all the way down to 25 in my area. but yet the roads stayed wet side walks and even the grass until the last 2 hours wasnt even laying on any thing but cars. only ended up with half an inch. can some one explain to me with temps in the mid 20s no sun since it was night time the snow couldnt even accumulate on grass or side walks? I have had light snow lay with temps in the mid 30s before this just puzzled me.

just amazes me 9 times out of 10 the models are right about screwing my area haha. 1 times out of 10 do we bust high o well. Looking at radar back end is all rdy here always ends so much faster. then models show

cant really sleep roads side walks are just still wet only now started laying on the grass? lol

lol we got jack shit so far all melting on the ground even tho the temp is 28 now snowing still back back edge on its way