Sernest14

Power flickering- Roughly .25” at the moment.   The crunching sounds are great

7 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Breeze is picking up, trees moving a little. Not good. .19 of ice already and plenty more to come. 

What’s best way to measure?

Driveway and walkway ice seems to have washed away

5 minutes ago, Hyphnx said:

Power is out for me.

Where are you at?

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Roads don’t seem to be an issue from reports I’m getting. Is anyone else hearing anything different. I’ve heard from people in Ashland who had to drive and Mechanicsville.

Roads look ok but they also get heavy traffic.  Also won’t be able to really see it but wouldn’t risk going out anywhere.  It’s only just starting and getting worse

Just now, SoCoWx said:

I really hate this for us. 

The last ice storm I was alive for was the ‘98 one, and what I don’t get is, how can the power realistically be out for weeks when not only are there warmer days coming up, but a series of plain rain events?

Wouldn’t that melt the ice fairly quickly and make power restoration quicker?

Different type of outage than just a transformer blowing.  Poles and lines will be down and that takes a lot more time for repair

Moved my car back in driveway away from roof line.  Had it in park letting the windshield melt and started sliding down driveway- not too bad a grade either.  We’ve barely started this storm too- stay safe all!

super slick out - already have a solid coat everywhere - driveway is an ice rink 

Just now, Hyphnx said:

Just went out back to grab a beer and fell... it's really slippery out there

Beers ok right?

17 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

HRRR is warmer and not as much as ice..we go ice to rain and back to ice. Every other short range model still has significant ice storm

Definitely odd seeing it take that turn all of a sudden.  Precip will be there.  Just a matter of temps at surface- either way, we’ll likely be frozen and it’ll get ugly

HRRR now scattered tonight until true start of 4am - coming in earlier by 2-3 hours.  The predawn could start could set the tone

NAM with a 5am start through 5 pm.

RGEM with a midnight start going through 7/8 pm - heavy precip in the morning around 9am

even temps at 32- the surface temps with the snow have to be below freezing - instant freeze i would think

Ice Storm Warning Issued

Also, anyone know ratios for ice or is it a 1:1 to liquid

Anyone know what DT is talking about saying that short range models are just showing light precip?  From what I’m seeing, RGEM/NAM/HRRR all show moderate+ levels  for an extended period of time

10 minutes ago, JB Fins said:

I might go shake a few trees, smaller ones, to save them the extra weight.

 

Just be sure to shake today and not tomorrow

Just now, RVASnowLover said:

Even 10-15 mph gust can cause problems since trees are already weighed down with snow. Add .25-.50 of ice to that and even a little wind can cause a lot of problems 

Yeah definitely - trees are already heavily leaning here - looks like gusts are 8-10 from checking a few different places.  asking in the main group for what models show though

How do winds look on the models?  From basic forecasts they are showing less than 5 with gusts to 10.

Just now, Anyweather said:

 

Trees out in Goochland county are still loaded with snow. Won't take much ice to start breaking limbs. Any idea what kind of wind is forecast for tomorrow?

Just checked winds and they seem to be minimal - less than 5 mph - maybe gusts up to 10-15 I would guess so that is good

HRRR gives about 15 hours of moderate to heavy ice starting about 6am

Right at 5.5” here in Ashland and now 1/2” of ice on the way tomorrow.  Could get ugly

3 minutes ago, SoCoWx said:

It’s beautiful out this morning! And the roads look mainly slushy, so I should be okay as long as I go slow.

 

What’s the ice storm situation looking like now? Anyone have any updates on that?

Here’s what locals were showing this morning

Good little storm!  Ended up with about 5.5”

This band has been nice- 1” rates for the last 2+ hours and looks to be about an hour left.  4.75” at the moment