Sernest14

NAM looks great- 3-5”

HRRR at 48 on the 18z is expanded pretty far wnw with precip as well compared to all other models.  not holding my breath but hoping for a better pickup on the 2nd storm by the mesos once the first gets going and through.  you would think if that could move more quickly then it would open up a little room for the second wave.

Euro says no dice

GEPS still gives us .2 liquid for weekend storm which would be 2-4" with ratios.

Oof - SEVA gets shafted with 12Z GFS.  Gone by 12Z Saturday with less 1-2" from 12Z Friday - 12Z Saturday (2-4" overall)

HRRR gets us 2-3" for Thursday - hopefully that pans out.  Still have the GFS and Euro with the 4-7" for weekend- here's to hoping that doesn't go away with 12Zs

at about 4-5" on the GEFS with 15:1 ratios for the weekend.  Roughly the same for operational.

Looks like a slight tick NW this run - baby steps.  Get this for 3-4 more runs 

30 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The hi res NAM - which is supposed to be good at deciphering setups like we saw with the last storm / had places NW of Winchester seeing 2-3” the day before the storm. That model is completely out to lunch. They should just revert back for the ETA and call it a day 

There is a Thursday storm that’s running up that way with 1-3” the day before this…

Thursday looks like a dud on the 18z - that low never seems to pick up any steam and things stay a bit more suppressed.

NAM looks a little more amped at hr 27

5 minutes ago, Inudaw said:

CMC casually drops 36 inch storm between the hours 180 and 228. 

lock it in!

Still have a few models that give us 3"+ ; hoping the euro holds ground - GFS is at least showing improvement over previous days run as well.

3 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

Thankfully it’s the NAM 

but that was the only one giving us 2"+ 

12z NAM ends up sliding a bit more south and less amped on that second wave.  Still some accumulating snow for SCentral and SE VA

another thing to note is that the bigger storm will likely be much higher ratios closer to 15:1 so up whatever is shown on the 10:1 maps (not sure if Kuchera adjusts for that already though?)

man I hope the 0z NAM is right; 6 inches as an appetizer before the bigger storm would be amazing

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

6 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

So are we at all models vs gfs at this point?

Nope euro vs all models.

Wasnt icon and ukie showing similar track?

So are we at all models vs gfs at this point?

Hoping we can sty cooler longer before plain rain. We’re 3-4 degrees cooler than what HRRR was showing at 12z

Same- switched over briefly but back to good snow- guessing this will last until this band pushes through

Dumping now- heavier band just started and looks to be continuing for a bit

Hopping we hold to snow for this yellow incoming on the radar

Has it started yalls way?  Looks like (based on traffic cams) it’s started in the city?