Sernest14

May be the greatest asshole but he’s also a great met

3k NAM gives 1-2+” of ice up the blue ridge

9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Down in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not

Nothings on top of each other in your screenshot?  The purple shows that there will also be icing in these areas.  But on that note, no idea how that much snow drops if they’re also get ice as well

12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Can we please stop posting 10:1 maps.

Agreed - anyone have 20:1 maps?

curious on how well the HRRR generally does?  

Looks in the same spot as 18z at 48

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It

Doesn’t

Matter

good news with the models is it's a brief transition to rain followed by dry slot so we get the initial 3-5/6" thump and brief rain.

3 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

I know it’s early, but I can’t get rid of this feeling that we do worse than last year. Future still looks good though so I’ll remain hopeful.

We've already beat last year haven't we?  didn't we get less than 1.5" last year?

Nevermind - that was Winter 19/20

NAM does seem to trend warmer so that's a plus??

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Thought this was an interesting post

 

NAM just showed this more so than others have with a lot of VA getting into Sleet/Freezing Rain.

Nam 18z, Euro 12z and GFS 12z all virtually the same through 36

81 special; huge cutoff up 95

deleted - flipped on me to previous run

Definitely south at 63, Low is down on the panhandle.  a hair slower as well

GFS looks very similar to NAM at 27 & 42 minus the H in the PNW

sorry for being ignorant to this but if the system happens to be slower as the NAM is depicting - would this reduce the level of N/NW movement and allow it to run on a more ENE trajectory?

Down to 41- was at 51 2 hours ago.  Didn’t think we were supposed to hit this until 10-11 or so

The latest HRRR shows current Low a bit further SE than the last 10 runs - should be good right?

3 hours ago, mattie g said:

Has he recovered from his quality call for Monday?

His last call seemed pretty reasonable- a little under in the 6-8 isolated but not sure how just north and west of dc fared?

How’d folks do in and around the city?

Looks like after this little band we’re about done.  

Just passed 5” in grassy areas now.  .5” pickup in 25 min

Up to 4.5” now.  This band is putting it down good

Compaction is killing depth