Sernest14
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Posts posted by Sernest14
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18z NAM 3k is ugly. Lucky to get an inch. not as amped on the initial thump and temps are higher than what we’ve seen.
Per pivotal- just checked TT and that looks more in line with other models. No idea how the algorithms are so far off for the same model?
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Actually not sure if that temp is right? Going by phone and seeing 37 on one and 40 on the other ?
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We’re also at 37 from a forecasted 39 so hoping those 2 degrees continues to carry and helps
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Same with Ashland on the warning still in place for 4-6
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3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:
Different algorithms.
Thanks! I'll switch to looking at the algorithms that give us more
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16 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:
Can someone post the models predictions for the front and back end dumps.
I haven't seen anything more than 1" on recent models for the back end - everything is more or less the front. Dry slot and then maybe some light snow/showers for a few hours
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Just now, JB Fins said:
That's a slight improvement for us in central VA compared to previous runs is it not? 0.4 to 0.9?
Has the EURO ever caved to the NAM? I know they all have their victories but hard to bet against the King in winter.
True but Nam only goes to 60 so that's with 6 hours of additional precip haha
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3K Nam bad for everyone Sunday compared to what we have been seeing- the initial thump has essentially gone away for most.
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Yeah that is good but at 42 hours it's showing a slight N movement compared to 18. Hopefully changes back south a little as it moves across OH Valley
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Bad NAM run for us - a lot of sleet and freezing rain - definitely a shift N with only 1" on the initial thump.
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Freezing line has moved north from 18Z NAM to 0Z for early Sunday AM
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HRRR and Nam are pretty close (HRRR more amped) at 48
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Euro run keeps the cold around longer and decent front thump again. 12z Monday still has snow north and west of city with a 295/95 cutoff east for rain
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5 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:
18Z GFS was a step in right direction. Doesn't give us much snow but more than it has been.
Still way too warm but getting closer - has the area getting into the low 40s overnight Sunday. Just don't see that happening
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Hoping that 32-33 that we keep getting forecasted can be pulled down a couple degrees from the initial thump and not push us above freezing until the dry slot.
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Through 114: Euro nothing to write home about - looks like a 3-4" - precip switches to a light rain Monday and back to light snow 0Z Tuesday. Really a lack of moisture in our area this run. Good initial lump but lacking after 18z Sunday. Still a little wrap around to come through but don't anticipate more than an inch with that
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Great UK run for the area - 7" through first 12 hours with a lengthy break (hopefully we can stay a little cooler - at around 33 degrees all day Monday but this is during very light precip or dry slots) with an additional 1-4" depending on area to finish off the storm.
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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Anyone know why the 3k NAM are so different between TT and Pivotal?