Sernest14

Sitting about 1.5" right now (measured on car).

Been showing 2+ degrees cooler than models.  At 41 now with NAM showing 44

Now 40 compared to the 44 modeled

4-5am looks to be the heavy band coming in- may need to set the alarm clock

Not a drop here yet

46 in Ashland - about 2 degrees colder than NAM had us at this point.  Hopefully a good sign to allow more snow than rain

Thankfully this is happening overnight - 3K NAM still gives some good totals - about 3-5 on a 7:1

Will likely be heavy wet snow with huge flakes which is always fun - kind of reminds me of the March storm back in '15 I think it was where we got 4 inches of that stuff but it was gone just like that.

Euro held strong

nice hit for the Euro!  Not a whole lot of room for error though

Next weekend there looks to be something with the models.  Euro is a little slower and has the cold air I. Place more so than GFS a day earlier

Looks like a good shot on 2/6-2/7 GFS moves quicker with this system to come through 2/6, Euro 2/7.

love the setup look for the euro though

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Well 18z GFS is on board for something next weekend.  Not like the EUro of course, but it's interesting

Euro shows something around the same time frame from what I see.  Looks 24 hours delayed though coming through on 2/7 vs 2/6 (GFS)

8 minutes ago, frd said:

If memory serves me correctly, not as good as the last Euro run for Southern areas.  

 

That storm totals or additional from now?

Would have like a bit more- doesn’t seem to be making it to the ground really now compared to what radar shows which I’m fine with as I’d rather not have rain.  Good storm for the kiddos to play in though- will take it considering our last actual snow was December of 18

also depending on where you are, looks like it may be lighter as we’re on the edge of precip shield with how it’s moving so at least it won’t be rain to wash away this afternoon

19 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Huh? It’s down south of Richmond lol

It’s move north- radar isn’t catching it.  Have had sleet and freezing rain for past 45 and I’m about 15 miles north or city

Anyone in short pump/west end?  Looks like a heavy band coming through

Just started mixing with sleet in Ashland (30 miles south of Fredericksburg).   At about 4.5”

And there’s the sleet   Ended up right around 5.25” (grass measurement) - rechecked and 4.5” on patio

Still all snow in Ashland, hoping we don’t flip before this heavier batch comes through

HRRR showing another 3 around Richmond left and 4 Hanover so could push 5-7overall

Right at about 3” in Ashland 

Snow line still south of VA.  All short ranges had rain/mix line into va at this time already

NAM has more moisture filling in after the first wave compared to last few runs

looks great through 15z so far

At 27 now (3-5 degrees lower than short range models depicted at 18z

Traffic cams show snow already coming down in Abingdon.  Looks like nice stickage so far on grass and sides of 81

Took a step back- 4-6” down from 8” at 0z