The big ones always get sniffed out early. And if we are being honest the models have been signaling this for days already. I think a historic stretch is coming for all of us.
That whole winter seems like a decent analog to me. We had cold early that just kept lingering. That storm hit with a +NAO, +AO and a -PNA. Neutral enso as well. I dont know what the upper air maps looked like for that storm though.
Looks like the pattern breaks down mid March. Which is perfect timing imo. Maybe we will get a real spring this year after a historic 4-5 week period of winter?
In Feb and March? Examples? As the longwave pattern starts to change in spring we need a -NAO for bombs. I cannot think of a single example of a big snowstorm on the coastal plain without it. Now out here and up there? Yeah. we can score. Because we hold CAD.
Agree. Not always. But heading into February and March. Yeah. We are gonna need it. Or it will be cutter city. Hope I am wrong.
Edit: I will add. Any precip is good for my garden so bring it. But no -NAO means the SE ridge will dominate. Is what it is.