Was looking at the Kuchera ratio map on the gfs run. It had DC at around 14-1 and the ratios progressed up to 20-1 well west of town. Not sure how accurate that is but pretty phenomenal fluff if true.
The confluence is worse as well. Look at the position of the 50/50 in that animation above. I mean its the NAM. But I think you are right and it ends up north.