The big ones always get sniffed out early. And if we are being honest the models have been signaling this for days already. I think a historic stretch is coming for all of us.
That whole winter seems like a decent analog to me. We had cold early that just kept lingering. That storm hit with a +NAO, +AO and a -PNA. Neutral enso as well. I dont know what the upper air maps looked like for that storm though.
Looks like the pattern breaks down mid March. Which is perfect timing imo. Maybe we will get a real spring this year after a historic 4-5 week period of winter?
In Feb and March? Examples? As the longwave pattern starts to change in spring we need a -NAO for bombs. I cannot think of a single example of a big snowstorm on the coastal plain without it. Now out here and up there? Yeah. we can score. Because we hold CAD.