Weather Will

WB 18Z AI is a nothing burger west of the Bay.

WB 18Z GEFS; 6 members with significant rain west of 95. More than 12Z.

WB 18Z GFS ticked west.

WB 18Z ICON does not phase and is less intense/ more offshore.

Latest discussion from NWS Sterling. Kudos to them for working without pay during the suspension of operations. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A coastal low pressure system continues to bring plenty of uncertainty to the forecast for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Synoptically, we will remain in a split flow pattern caught between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Surface high pressure will gradually push east from southern New England into the western Atlantic through the weekend while an area of low pressure pushes north along a stalled boundary at the southeast U.S. coast. Meanwhile, closed low pressure looks to dig south from the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley into the Mid-Atlantic during the weekend timeframe. Deterministic and ensemble model solutions continue to exhibit large spread when it comes to how these features interact, although some consistency has been noted in the latest 12z solutions. The biggest question overall is to how far south the closed low feature digs into the region and its overall placement to interact with the incoming coastal low. The 12z EPS continues to favor a solution where the cutoff low pressure system has some interaction with the incumbent shortwave/cutoff low over the Northeast. The 12z GEFS also favors some interaction between the cutoff low and coastal low, especially toward the back half of the weekend into early next week. Both solutions suggest increasing rain chances late Saturday into Sunday, especially in locations east of the Blue Ridge and toward the I-95 corridor. Some shower activity may push toward the mountains, but is highly dependent on the timing/placement of the coastal feature and interaction with the closed low/shortwave feature which looks to pass just over/north of the region. Either way, this is a highly volatile forecast with many moving parts that will have to be closely monitored. A blend of the solutions would suggest increased cloud cover, seasonable temperatures, and blustery conditions (especially by the waters) for the upcoming weekend ahead. Precipitation chances look to increase from the southeast Saturday afternoon and evening as the influence of high pressure kicks further into the western Atlantic, and coastal low pressure moves toward the Carolinas. Rain chances will continue to increase for all locations with an emphasis for those east of US-15 Sunday into Monday as low pressure lifts up toward the Delmarva, and the shortwave trough/cutoff low nears. Rain chances will decrease Tuesday as the cutoff low/shortwave trough pushes east, and the coastal low retrogrades back south toward the Carolinas. High pressure returns thereafter for the middle part of next week. Persistent east to northeasterly flow will lead to below normal temperatures through early next week. Highs should remain in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Rainfall chances are generally confined to areas along and east of I-95, and generally capped at 30 to 50 percent. There is certainly room for this to change based on the track of the coastal feature. Expect wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph over land Sunday with gale gusts possible over the waters. Stay tuned and check back at weather.gov/lwx for the latest.

Ok, just to start getting warmed up for winter, some WB 12Z EPS probability maps:

WB 12Z EPS supports the global at Day 5.

WB 12z EURO at Day 5; old-fashioned nor'easter....

WB 12Z GEFS; hug P24 if you are west of 95; 3% chance

WB 12Z ICON upper level low track is much further SE and stronger than the GFS.

WB 12Z Day 5 rain totals for the globals. ICON (shifted back west); GFS still DC eastward; Canadian is Day 6 because it is slower; AI a tick west of 6Z and also slower like Canadian so also Day 6.; EURO is a solid hit for everyone and would cause flooding on the shore.

Well maybe some SE ridge will move the storm track just far enough NW so we can get snow rather than dry, cold air this winter in the NW burbs...

WB 12Z EPS

WB 12Z EURO...looks like ICON.

I'm hugging the ICON for the upcoming storm. It nailed the track of the last coastal. (WB 12Z: about .25 is for Wed.)

WB 18Z ensembles. GEFS has a few members tracking close to the mid Atlantic coast.

WB 12Z EPS and AI ensembles are off the coast for the coastal.

WB 12Z AI is a tick east. Euro spins off the SE coast and then dissipates over the SC/GA border.

WB 12Z GEFS mean is well east of its global.

Big shift west on the 12Z GFS for the potential coastal early next week. Will also post GEFS when it comes out.

WB 12Z globals for midweek.

WB latest EURO seasonal thru March by month.

WB latest EURO weekly, my first digital snow of the season for early November! Let the tracking begin!!!

Didn't the EURO AI have several runs run up the coast before caving to the ICON/Canadian?

What a complete fold by the EURO models. Hail the new ICON/ Canadian Kings!!! In all seriousness, I will not fall for the EURO snow storm looks this winter when the other models show nothing....