ChiTownSnow

i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th). still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance.

Shortly after Christmas, becomes shortly after new year, becomes mid January, becomes February we will be rocking..

the next Joe B

Interesting read. Could be all hype but idk..Gen Cast has already outperformed major American models "To rigorously evaluate GenCast's performance, we trained it on historical weather data up to 2018, and tested it on data from 2019. GenCast showed better forecasting skill than ECMWF’s ENS, the top operational ensemble forecasting system that many national and local decisions depend upon every day. We comprehensively tested both systems, looking at forecasts of different variables at different lead times — 1320 combinations in total. GenCast was more accurate than ENS on 97.2% of these targets, and on 99.8% at lead times greater than 36 hours." https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weather-and-the-risks-of-extreme-conditions-with-sota-accuracy/

Nope not much.. still there in some form on 12z. Not consistent by any means but still there

At this stage let's just be thankful there's a signal for a storm in the he vicinity

I'll take it. That's where our cold comes from

Exceeded expectations. Let's hope it's good Omen for this winter.

18Z says hold my beer

Lock it in

What do we make of this ssw event in Southern hemisphere? Big deal or just noise? https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/stratospheric-warming-to-disrupt-polar-vortex-in-southern-hemisphere/1889759 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-27/nsw-antarctica-warming-over-50c/104142332

Blowing it's top out with that first bow echo

I'm still riding the NAM.. last min bump north and colder

Quarter to maybe slightly above here in Darien

Looks like a pea size hail formed into a snowball to me.

Both NAM/CMC a bit further north and wetter than EURO/GFS. 0.4 of precip modeled and would get interesting with high ratios and some Lake Effect

Models kicking out a few tenths of an inch (0.01 to 0.1) of precip over N IL tonight. I assume would be very high ratios.

Too soon .. we're not ready to talk about it yet.

Thanks for the reply.. And I hope you know my comment was not meant to be at any certain audience. If anything it's for us arm chair quarterbacks that think we know more than we do when we see model runs that favor our backyard and ride it to the bank. It's hard for us to keep emotions out of it. It's what separates the hobbiest from the professionals. LOT did pretty good job with extremely tough forecast. Appreciate all you guys do and on to the next one!

Nobody kill me..(I know we all have been begging for a GLC). But I miss the guarantee of a clipper. One of those hybrid west to east overperformers with a gulf/Pac connection

I feel like we all need a Lessons learned debrief after this one. What went well, what did not....uggghhh this hobby sux Edit.. or we listen to Chicagostorm when he is "cautiously optimistic"@Chicago Storm

I'm okay with it. We got our 5 in ..maybe one to two more.

Enough to glaze over snowpack to limit drifting

Well keep complaining then

Any read on wind gusts? Seems pretty legit from the east