ChiTownSnow

Looks like the southern low out of GOM becomes more dominant and takes over

I'm not sure I would call it pessimism when majority is based on history/facts and lots working against us

the difference from my untrained eye is that the wave ahead of it is a bit stronger, and gets a bit cut off which keeps the east coast trough deeper and further west long enough, which supresses the headline storm as it cannot amplify

So the new January pattern is the same as the old December pattern.. yay 2025

Gonna take a bit for the models to sort out the timing of the pattern change & cold. as well as the moderation of the initial cold.

you have to go back a bit further .. their prediction for 15th - 20th time frame started late Nov /early Dec. i think someone actually posted it on this thread a while back . im not really bashing them, just pointing out the trend as well as the fact that he is in the hype social media business.. i think this is it.

that mild pattern was originally the current mild pattern we are in now, to proceed return of winter around end of month..

yah...kinda reminds you of the old JB days?.. hehe

i see he is to mid january now (it was dec 25th-30th). still at the denial stage.. next step is acceptance.

Shortly after Christmas, becomes shortly after new year, becomes mid January, becomes February we will be rocking..

the next Joe B

Interesting read. Could be all hype but idk..Gen Cast has already outperformed major American models "To rigorously evaluate GenCast's performance, we trained it on historical weather data up to 2018, and tested it on data from 2019. GenCast showed better forecasting skill than ECMWF’s ENS, the top operational ensemble forecasting system that many national and local decisions depend upon every day. We comprehensively tested both systems, looking at forecasts of different variables at different lead times — 1320 combinations in total. GenCast was more accurate than ENS on 97.2% of these targets, and on 99.8% at lead times greater than 36 hours." https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/gencast-predicts-weather-and-the-risks-of-extreme-conditions-with-sota-accuracy/

Nope not much.. still there in some form on 12z. Not consistent by any means but still there

At this stage let's just be thankful there's a signal for a storm in the he vicinity

I'll take it. That's where our cold comes from

Exceeded expectations. Let's hope it's good Omen for this winter.

18Z says hold my beer

Lock it in

What do we make of this ssw event in Southern hemisphere? Big deal or just noise? https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/stratospheric-warming-to-disrupt-polar-vortex-in-southern-hemisphere/1889759 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-27/nsw-antarctica-warming-over-50c/104142332

Blowing it's top out with that first bow echo

I'm still riding the NAM.. last min bump north and colder

Quarter to maybe slightly above here in Darien

Looks like a pea size hail formed into a snowball to me.

Both NAM/CMC a bit further north and wetter than EURO/GFS. 0.4 of precip modeled and would get interesting with high ratios and some Lake Effect

Models kicking out a few tenths of an inch (0.01 to 0.1) of precip over N IL tonight. I assume would be very high ratios.