cptcatz

So recon just marked it at 993 mb. NHC had it at 1003 mb. This is going to get interesting. And this probably belongs in the other thread but GFS now has multiple runs showing another major hurricane hitting florida the following week...

Wow recon is showing it much stronger than we thought! Those hurricane models could be on to something...

Is this the most frightening model image seen in a long time?

GFS coming in even stronger. 956 mb at hour 66

They both came from the south but Ian and Charley both moved across the state from west to east.

Wow that's like legit close to being a tropical storm already. Nice thing about this tracking so close to the CONUS for its entire life will be we should get lots of recon flights. Hopefully they start flying soon.

I got 3.2 inches of rain this morning in 2 hours here in Boca Raton. Strong thunderstorm just sat over the Broward/Palm Beach line for two hours.

Euro coming in way stronger

I live in Palm Beach County and have recorded up to 15 inches of rain in two days without any flooding whatsoever in my area. But then you have places around Fort Lauderdale which floods like crazy. The geology is pretty similar (they have shallower limestone further south compared to our sand but that limestone is super permeable so I guess it has to do more with their pavement and lack of runoff options.

Euro and GFS both now show a solid tropical storm with a high 980s pressure approaching Florida. Would be bad if it brought surge back into Tampa Bay.

Models actually show Kirk impacting land big time. I'm not really familiar with northern European storm systems... what would this scenario actually look like for the UK/Ireland? Would they experience hurricane conditions and storm surge?

Looking likely that there will be two concurrent major hurricanes (Kirk and the next one right on its heels) in the central Atlantic on the first week of October. Pretty logical to have 5x ACE given that situation this time of year. Let's see what happens with this Gulf system though...

Will need a few more to surpass 2020 or 2005. For US Gulf Coast landfalls, 2024 is at 4/4/1 (Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene) 2020 was 8/5/2 2005 was 6/5/4

Yep, just did a little case study. Helene mad landfall the night of 9/26 at a pressure of 938 mb. Let's see what the Euro models showed at landfall: 9/21 12z: 991 mb 9/22 00z: 989 mb 9/22 12z: 981 mb 9/23 00z: 982 mb 9/23 12z: 983 mb 9/24 00z: 984 mb 9/24 12z: 978 mb 9/25 00z: 959 mb Euro really didn't catch on to this being a strong hurricane until the day before it made landfall. The fact that the super bearish Euro model is showing a 998 mb storm in the Gulf 9 days out right now should definitely tell you to keep your eye on this one. Especially with GFS showing the same system at 958 mb.

12z GFS not only brings a 958 mb hurricane into the Gulf coast, but probably even more devastating is that it brings the peak rain into the western Carolinas. Shows a tropical storm forming in only 72 hours from now, as well as another monster major fish storm in the central Atlantic.

I believe Andy Hazelton was on that flight. If so, he's a big tweeter so we should get a nice recap of what it was like.

Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side...

Assuming the plane that's about to get there took off with a full tank of gas there's no reason to believe it will need to land before landfall.

I'm gonna get weenied here but satellite looks like it's making a significant northeast motion and making a bee line into the penninsula. I'm calling landfall around Cedar Key. If it doesn't turn more north, the surge in Tampa could be even worse than thought.

And there it is. Is this the real turn to the northeast happening? Would be significantly earlier than models showed...

Interested to see where they mark the center from this last pass but from eyeballing the barbs, it looks like it's western movement has ended. Looks possibly a tad east of due north.

The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names.

Might be getting ahead of myself here but after Helene, it looks like the next threat may be the MDR storm which will come off Africa this weekend. There's a strong signal across all models for a low rider that looks like could make it to the caribbean and could be strong. Euro here:

Impressive amount of convection popping now off the Yucatan coast. Seems the sheer is gone. Should wrap up now.

Last few frames of visible satelite make it look like that naked swirl is moving almost due south.