JustinRP37

That's the point. Cold air holds far less moisture. Usually if you are in the low teens and below you are dealing with an incredible dry air mass. We can get snow though just usually not like our bigger storms.

Also when did it become necessary for us to have extreme arctic cold for snow? Usually when we are putting up significant cold anomalies here it is very dry air.

Listen, I am about as negative as they come, but this place is really ridiculous now. This weekend will TORCH, but month to date, I am 1.7 degrees above normal in my area. Again you can all talk about the city etc, but New England and north NY has not been as bad as you all make it sound. And the anomaly over the Hudson Bay is quite warm, but if you notice that is largely over the water itself thanks to the summer. Decembers, once again, are RARELY snowy in these part until the last week. It can snow in an above normal temperature pattern and it does. It has also been snowing mood snow all day here with a light accumulation. Next week looks average for the time of year before another warmup on the weekend.

This has been one of the better starts to ski season in NY and New England in years. Get out and enjoy the winter and quit wishing for different weather, the weather is what it is. There are chances, especially for the interior moving forward. Anomalies for temperatures do not tell the whole story. That the city is tough to see accumulating snow in any winter, especially as the urban heat island continues to grow. If you want to see December snow, then travel.

Snowing here in Patterson as I get ready to take the train down to the city. Nice mood snow. Torch weekend and then back to normal. Next week Thunder Ridge should get many nights of blasting the hill with snow.

Yes thanks for this. I was more referring to how it seems, and only on this forum, that winter is canned if the MJO is unfavorable. MJO is a part of the piece. About 5 years ago we were going on about the Siberian snow advance, only to find out that that dissertation really did not pan out well at all. Ocean warming is only accelerating and going to increase more. One doesn't have to go back too far in time to find the infamous slogan of "the solution to pollution is dilution". Man once thought the oceans to be so vast we cannot impact them. That is definitely not true as we see with ocean rise and acidification. The heat also has to go somewhere. That said, all I was trying to do was point out that 5 pages of MJO discussion is not conducive to the whole picture. It does play a role, but so far, where you would expect snow in late November in the northeast, there has been snow. I get people want it in their backyard, but that is not most of the forums climate. That doesn't mean this winter is trashed already. Kind of funny to only be looking at anomalies as we approach the coldest time of the year. It is a warning sign to see a +6-10 models in the arctic on this side. The average for Utqiavik for December is -2 for a high and -14 for a low, add a +10 to that and you are still below zero at "night" where the sun never fully comes above the horizon. Still alarming, but doesn't spell the end of cold for us. We are definitely warming, but we aren't going snowless this decade, likely in my lifetime though.

One thing I have noticed lately is how much this forum relies on the MJO. The MJO really is not the sole indicator and probabilities are fairly low with how it can be used to couple with snowstorms or even across the area. After the first week of December we look to have a -AO, -NAO, and a +PNA, but I have not seen that brought up once. Ski forums are rightly excited for how this season has gotten off and appears to look leading into the holidays.

Just west of Kingston! Two or so hours away from NYC.

Right? How many freezes have you had? We are coming off almost a full week now with night freezes up here.

This is awesome! Thanks! I'll be here!

Then all in good fun. Not sensitive, let's have a cold winter and go skiing. If it won't snow, we'll see on man-made ice surrounded by brown.

As it should be, but shouldn't need to happen in the first place. I like hot and humid as well, so I guess I don't pay an electric bill. It's weather, we live with it. It is really bizarre lately how you mention either warm or snow and it triggers people. Like holy crap. A year like last year is almost impossible for us to have two years in a row. Anyone with half a brain can look at statistics and see that, but lately we have some saying we are doomed for a repeat of last year. By looking at stats, I can almost guarantee you we won't be shutout again this year. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it is incredibly unlikely. The Catskills have already seen multiple snow events and it isn't even December yet. This is a far better start to the season. I would much rather have the snow then not have the snow, but with cold air at night, resorts can make the snow they need to actually make money. I don't think people realize how thin the margins are for family owned ski areas. Last year was devastating to many families. Another season like that this year would likely spell the end of some smaller family run mountains. While summer businesses were hit hard this year by rainy weekends, the majority at least do not have to spend massive amounts of money just to be able to open like ski areas. Right now it has been cold enough at nights, especially with some elevation, to make a ton of snow. That will hopefully get many mountains open for the vital holiday season, which many missed out on, or had limited terrain open reducing capacity for the past few seasons. Once we get through President's weekend in February, even if we are having a banner year, a lot of casual skiers and boarders begin to move on to spring.

Good lord, I think I'll start sticking to this subforum now. I was just told I must live with my parents and not own my own home in the NYC subforum for saying I like cold weather and am happy that the ski season has gotten off to a good start. Living just west of Danbury, CT, our weather is much more New England like than NYC Metro. I am very happy to see several nights of snow making temperatures at night and also quite a few next week after some moderation this weekend. It would be great for the ski areas to be able to have a good amount of terrain open for the holiday season this year, since many, especially in southern NY and New England, have missed that period the past couple of seasons. This season is already off to a great start, let's hope it stays that way for awhile.

Right? That is what I am saying. Even next week there will be several nights with snow making temps. Even if it doesn’t snow, if it stay cold that is all I want!

This season has honestly not been bad. Many ski areas are opening up this week and many already are open. This is already better than last year.

Right? I don't get it. Nov is ending up solidly below normal, yet you would think we were all in the pool this past weekend.

Got down to 29 here in Patterson. Cold start but loving these freezes.

Oh I 100% agree with the UHI, but what I am pushing back on are the number of people saying it is going to be a carbon copy of last year. That type of year is just as hard to have as a winter with 50+ inches in Manhattan. They will, sadly, become more common, but I still think this one will wind up much closer to average for snowfall. Still thinking it will be just below average with more marginal events, but I do think Vermont, the Catskills, Adirondacks, etc do well this year.

I don't get this doom and gloom. Maybe it is because I'm much further north, but November has been great up here. We were down to the low 20s and nothing but a few days scream really warm. Even a degree warmer or so over average can and does produce around here. I don't think we are looking at another snowless winter. It is very difficult to put up winters with less that 10 inches of snow across most of the subforum, just like it is very difficult to produce winters with 50+ inches across the whole subforum. Calm down. It is November 13th, and it was beautiful and COLD this morning.

We got down to 27 here in Patterson last night. Felt great this morning walking my son to the bus stop.

It would be great to just have sustained average and cool temps. Looking ahead it does not look like that will happen, but we can hope!

I would, but now with the leaves thinning out we can hear the Metro North train horns about half a mile away. Usually sleep right through it but sometimes it does wake me up since it is infrequent up this way.

Wow 57 was my low here in Patterson, NY. It is roasting outside for the time of year. House only cooled off to 71 from an indoor high of 74. At this rate I might need the AC this evening!

Don’t think it will anytime soon, but we really need to dry out. This is heavy rain is really wrecking our infrastructure. We could use a solid 2-3 weeks of sunshine and we would still probably have plenty of ground moisture at this point. Not to mention the nutrients beginning to leach out of our soil.

Metro-North Harlem line is now fully suspended again. Website doesn’t show this, but train got to Tuckahoe and terminated. Flooding again.