That was a hell of a storm last night around 11 PM. Missed the storm by a few miles but the lightning was very loud. Apparently a tree blew up down the road from me in someone's yard.
Almost 14 hours straight of tracking dorian now. Safe to say I've beat my personal record of about 11 hours or so tracking Irene moving up the coast after I graduated high school.
Honestly I've been staring at the satellite and models ya know for hours on end without budging since yesterday morning. It's like a NHC shift but at home and i'm not even qualified lol. But I could qualify since I'm good at sitting at the edge of my bed tracking hurricanes for so long.
Cmon guys. Really? SW Wobble. Yes, SW wobble. You heard it right. SW wobble! We talkin' bout SW wobbles. How many SW wobbles will it take to will this thing to Australia?
Several hundred millibar drop with Dorian from the previous pass. Radar gone full ring, and the water temperature has dropped 50 degrees.
Edit: Recon finding 500 mph winds. I'd say anywhere from Miami to Boston should evacuate.
5,000 J/kg CAPE over southern Delmarva. Also some towering cumulus to my east and I can feel the instability in the air. Best chance for convection IMO is across the state line as the cumulus field starts here east.
I think they were basing it on Tennessee too much and not enough of the cloud cover. Based on looking at yesterday evening's satellite, the cloud debris was gonna be a problem and they missed it.