Malacka11

Per LOT extended range courtesy our very own: Looking out beyond day 7, for multiple model cycles in a row, the ensemble means have consistently depicted the ejection of an anomalously deep western trough into the Midwest. The pieces could thus come together to support a strong synoptic system affecting the region (irrespective of precip. types) early in the first full work week of January. Medium-long range ensemble guidance also has been consistent in an active and colder pattern continuing through mid January, so there may eventually be some bonafide winter weather threats to track. Stay tuned. Castro

You nerds ready to suffer some more emotional damage cause it's coming

That actually sounds like a total blast, I'm terribly at bocce sadly

Maybe I'm silly but if it isn't gonna be snowy, I think gloomy is the next best Christmas weather. Keeps some of the coziness alive. Every other week the depression weather can piss off though

I don't get how it's so challenging to figure out a new mod that we all trust who'll delete his ass. It's not like we don't have options, and surely there's some way to reach the upper admins.

Happen to be any historic big dogs in the Midwest that year?

That really was a one of a kind experience you earned yourself that day. I'd sign up with you if I weren't perpetually broke. I still need to replace the fender that my lil tornado incident cost me... at least all the glass and the side mirror has been long done. Need to paint the mirror though, it's gray to the rest of the shitbox's white

Just our pride that gets hurt methinks

It seems basically to be an AI composite of weather data/other models which is interesting, because that's more or less what I considered normal weather models to be already. Kind of cool if it actually works well which I don't see how it would be a downgrade in any way.

I think this is good plan, having a "rule" will help with the urge to start a thread the second it feels semi plausible for an event to occur. My issue is that the thought of not starting a thread early enough for an event that does happen gives me anxiety

I feel like the Euro was almost worse this time around no? Wasn't it the only OP to have a proper big dog? Only to trend to turd FROPA in less than a day too?

Continuing my trend of obnoxious optimism... At least it happened now and not on the 23rd.

euro more like you're a ho

Even if it's a tease we usually don't even get one of those for a while still

I like our placement between models but as always now, I fear a one-run transition to an event with a much lower ceiling. Question: why is it that, for example, the 06z GFS offered a pretty bland storm while the 06z GEFS was pretty crazy with the vast majority of members with a storm depicting a much more impressive event than the OP?

Yeah, that's what I assumed you meant too. Regardless of quantity, that amount of snow accounting for initial melt has to mean that it was coming down pretty hard for a time.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like once we get into the medium range, the models have gotten a lot more consistent at showing the same changes in thinking simultaneously, even if they're not necessarily correct. Like with next weekend's potential, all of the models have exhibited a dramatic changeup in the last 18 hours but they're doing it together, for better or worse. There hasn't been nearly as much "catching up" ya know?

In all honesty my point of memery was just heavy snow rates vs heavy snow totals: I thought we were talking more about the former than the latter lol. Nickel and dimeing gets me hyped when there's potential for some stacking or if it's actually setting the mood for the holidays/birthdays/in general if I'm feeling it. Other than that it's not crazy to me.

Just my $.02 but -assuming I'm reading that right- 1.7" in two hours or less while accounting for November ground temps sounds like a pretty decent thumping to me.

Exactly. And even that felt shockingly early to me. Usually the first real medium/long range threat with some real balls takes forever to even be hinted at.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like several years in previous memory didn't even give us the first shitty thread the needle event if only for tracking purposes until around now. At least it looks active for the foreseeable future.

I'm kind of impressed by the longevity of this snow. I guess I just didn't pay attention to expected temps but I was under the impression that everything would melt within a day tops. Still 95% white out there with these temps

Maybe some extreme needle threading later next week?

[narrator's voiceover] It is.