Holston_River_Rambler

18z RGEM keeps a week surface low entirely east of the Apps, and runs it up through the midlands of SC and NC:

I think you'll like the 18z GEFS members I just posted in the other thread, lol, if you are in Franklin.

I'll go ahead and say that most EPS members (at least as they depict snowfall), are a much more west, but n=maybe we can apply rule #5 here: Euro tends to hold energy back.

Sorry, I should probably keep the info for the early week system in this thread. That being said, check out the 18z GEFS members

Ole Ragl'r 18z GFS actually keeps the LP east of the Apps.

18z Para getting a little closer to with and Apps runner or keeping the LP east of the Apps: such a good looking HP, and holding its own instead of skidootchling east.

Man its 33 and change here at the edge of the plateau. As is the custom, fog has built in over the last couple of hours as some WAA tries to set up.

Euro is going for a wave riding the front scenario as the trough digs and sharpens: doesn't generate a lot of precip this run, but if there's one thing we've had luck with the past couple of winters, it's that scenario.

Barely breaks the 0 degree celsius line:

Euro box sounding around BNA while the mixed bag of precip is moving through:

THIS IS THE WAY

Even the Euro is a little closer to rounding the Apps with the surface low:

Memphis and Tobie ought to like the UKMET precip maps for Tuesday. And @Carvers Gap it could have some shades of the CMC's evolution.

Even if a lot of this is sleet, I'll take it, lol: We'll see what the precip type amounts look like once they are available on F5wx. Look at that blue dollop over @PowellVolz !!!

Here ya go:

If you liked that gray, you'll surely like the National Blend of Models:

Now Tellicowx may say that this includes sleet and he is right, but let's just enjoy the pretty colors for now.

Actually we won't look past next Thursday for now:

I think Middle and west TN folks will like the para GFS 16. Will post once its out through next week.

No, I really meant y'all should pick whether we rename or start a new one.

And it is probably fair that the people impacted (y'all) get to pick.

Overnight Ukie is just redonkulous: If that happens, @AMZ8990 and @Tobiewx will be in for it, lol

6z Euro for middle and western areas:

0z Euro pulls the boundary through after the early week storm and the next system is able to hit a bit further east: It may not happen that way, but that is at least a reasonable evolution of the pattern that could help eastern areas. All other modeling has that system too far west for eastern areas, but the CMC does have a second wave ride the front of teh second system, so some hints taht it sees that evolution as possible. EPS members see some possibilities there: Again I like that window because it seems a reasonable way that this pattern could hit areas east of BNA. But I've also noticed (and others have mentioned that they've noticed it as well) that these ensemble members seem to follow the OP, at least if you are looking for an individual system. The dispersion is probably good for seeing the pattern's evolution out in time, but I'm not sure it is so great for a specific system. Here's an interesting way to visualize that: This is a gif of the 24 hr snowfall at Crossville as the 50 EPS members see it, for the past 7 runs. At first they saw a distinct window centered on the 17th, but over time, that window shifts to the 19th. This seems to follow how far the Euro has seen the boundary making it. I just can't decide if it is a legitimate window, or will the EPS push it back yet again?

I think we're at the point where all the water is releasing its latent heat, at my house. 32 and drippy here in Mossy Grove with a brisk NNW wind.