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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Even the NAVGEM jumped north. Usually it is the most suppressed.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro: Maybe a touch warmer with thermals than 0z 6z GFS: As noted overnight GFS doesn't have as much influence from the northern upper low. But the 6z seemed like it had a touch more.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Pouring the sleet up here in MoCo for whatever reason...
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z ICON isn’t a bad pass of the assorted shortwaves.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC almost does a happy median in the scenario I outlined a few posts back. Some snow from the initial wave and then more when the trailer tries a partial phase with the big TPV lobe rotating to our NW.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    I must have mixed up the GFS and CMC when I posted the above lol. I was toggling between the two waiting for the Canadian to come in.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know what I was looking at before, but yeah it does look like it might still have it.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gulf Coast is only 500% of normal for snow. They need more!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC suppressed as well. Looks a lot like the GFS.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS looks to have a little more precip with initial push, but the TPV suppresses the rest into oblivion, besides whatever lapse rate upslope we'd get as it swings through.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Absolute beast behind it: That is the storm that the 6z AIFS develops into a big nor'easter around Feb 24.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Current location of the system and STJ: Juice is there, but will it take it to Cuba?
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    5 big players, in my mind, using the 6z Euro as an example: 1 = main TRPV lobe, trapped under the retrograding block. Questions with this one: How far south is it? That guides the amp potential of 3, (initial shortwave energy). This is what helps kick off the initial wave of light snow that seems to pitter on on some model runs around Wednesday AM. 2 = Tail end of the TPV lobe, this has the most boom or bust potential IMO. Questions with this. How far south and east does it swing? Far enough and we get a big juicy storm. If it stays far back we get more amp in 3 or 5 (main shortwave IMO, that really brings the snow with the CMC or Euro runs). Or it could run interference and be just close enough, but also just far away enough to suppress both 3 and 5. 3 = initial, strung out, shortwave energy. Questions with this one. How strong and defined is it? Stronger and more well defined = more precip. with initial wave. 4 = wild card STJ mess. Just noticed this connection when I looked at the above map to make this post. How much moisture and or mid level dry air does this inject to beef up or weaken the synoptic set up? Remember the drying out that happened back in Jan? Does look as likely this time, but who knows. 5= main shortwave. In my mind this is the most important shortwave for us. Its amplification is what draws moisture to the north. Questions with this one were mostly noted above, but if this one and 2 were to somehow find a way to partially phase, you get a really nice storm. This scenario is what really brough the moisture back to us on the CMC run last night IMO: For MBY (and much of East TN IMO) that is the preferred scenario, but I think all are still on the table at this time.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think a lot of it depends, too, on the TPV lobe and how it interacts with all the shortwave vorts swirling beneath it.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    There is a severe thread with some disco of this weekend.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    So I screwed up and was so excited when the ECMWF site popped back up and I saw 12, I just assumed 12z. It was 12 Feb 0z.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I'll own up to the screw up. When the ECMWF website popped back up and I saw 12 and just thought it was 12z. It was 12 Feb 0z. My bad.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the site has flopped again, so that's the best I have for now.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro finally ambled out on the ECMWF site. Thought I'd share with you all too. It died again before I get get any other layers. Days are Feb 19 - 20 MSLP and precip planels, 6hrs.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Suppression depression on the Euro:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Somebody in the MidAtlantic forum said the Euro's depiction of March '93 redux is currently under review by officials and that is causing the delay.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro website back up, but the "charts" section still offline.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    As far as I can tell the whole Euro website is down. https://charts.ecmwf.int/
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think its just the Euro according to COD. Got the info off of Southernwx
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    yeah it has some data problem.
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