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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the 500 mb pattern @Carvers Gap was talking about:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM 3km (and the RAP, sort of) has an interesting feature for tomorrow AM moving off of the plateau into the central eastern valley and on towards the Smokies: Looks like it has something to do with the 500 mb energy. Not that it would be a big event either way, but I will be watching to see if something like that happens. The NAM shows some frontogenetic forcing to the lee of the Apps, just as the blob of precip I circled would be moving over taht area: so maybe there is something like that to the lee of the plateau as the 500 mb flow backs up the valley at the same time as some lower level lee side convergence happens just ENE of the frozen head mts? 500 mb flow in blue, 700 mb flow in black, 850 mb flow in red The NAM sounding shows the best forcing and moisture just below the Dendritic Growth Layer, but some moisture up to 500 mb. Again this is not going to be a huge deal, but it is the kind of micro climate stuff I'm interested in.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking a little rough on the overnight EPS in the long range: At least it looks like a drier mildness and more zonal pattern than we have had in the past couple of winters. Might mitigate severe (sorry for severe lovers, not hating on you, just not a fan myself at least here where it seems like it is usually overnight and hard to see) and what has been our monsoon season for the past couple of winters.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    In a wild plot twist, the RGEM, mentioned in my post above above as missing the phase for the first two pieces of energy, has now reversed that position and phases them more like the Euro did in its gif above: RGEM thinks it could get interesting for SW VA and maybe, just maybe, TRI. All happening overnight Sunday into Monday, so that would help. The OP GFS and NAM aren't having any of it. Several of teh 18z GEFS members are similar to theRGEM though: OP Euro now looks like what the RGEM looked like a couple of days ago: EPS members aren't having any of it either.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Frozen Head this AM. Lots of nice waterfalls after the rain: Nice cold air advection interacting with the mt tops: Despite the rain, still some snow above 2500 feet: The mountains looked kinda foreboding this morning too.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Thought I'd do a little poking around the strat this AM. 0z 6z GFS almost, kinda, sort of tried to do a little split in about ten days: 0z run: 6z To be realistic, 10 - 14 days is waaaayyy out there, even for something as simple as trough and ridge location and even more for anything happening to the strat. Even if it did split, there are a lot of ways that could go wrong. Something to watch anyway. On a related note, looking at GFS's depictions of the dynamic tropopause and vorticity way up in the atmosphere, this attempt at a split may be tied to two things, on different sides of the globe. Over Siberia and the Bering strait, there are warming temps at 10 mb. You can see that above, as well as on the 0z Euro: Above Iceland and N. Europe, but lower in the atmosphere, some dynamic cyclones are tossing some anticyclones toward the pole, and the bottom of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV): You can see some anticyclones decaying over the pole in the early frames of the above gif, but I have also circled a more cohesive one. You can see it here at the bottom of the troposphere: in both you can see the main areas of vorticity getting stretched out from Hudson Bay to Siberia and I think that corresponds to the stretched look the SPV has in the first gifs of this post. But beware, if you look at the 3D vortex, you can see that all this may just be something that is going on at the lower levels of the SPV (concave area over N. Europe): Again not saying there is going to be a split, just decided to poke around in the strat. this AM. Doesn't always bear fruit, but something to watch. The anticyclones at the dynamic tropopause being tossed across the pole can be more meaningful, even if they don't disrupt the SPV, if they dislodge something or shake up smaller vorticies as they wander around the pole and towards Siberia. But that would have a 2 - 3 week lag for us and that is only if the GFS's depiction of anything late in its run proves accurate. Maybe Sandy Claws will bring us a present though:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS happy hour for SW VA and TRI:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    A met in the MA forum mentioned the UKMET overnight, so guess what I did as soon as I saw that, lol, like a moth to a candle: One thing I'm interested in this AM is the RGEM. Unless I have missed something it is, very nearly, on a an island in how it handles the three pieces of energy. It misses the phase between the what I'm calling energy piece #2 (circled in pink) and #1 ( circled in black). 6z Euro for comparison: 6z Euro 3 hour precip: To misquote Wellington, "it's a damn close-run thing." UKMET, NAM 12km, and even the RGEM's parent, the CMC also have that capture. Interestingly the 6z GFS doesn't. As volatile as things have been, I'm hesitant to say there's pretty good agreement for some sort of wintery weather in eastern areas of our forum, but definitely still intriguing this AM.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of interesting. 18z Euro handles the energy early next week interestingly:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    I wonder if differential temps had something to do with it. I bet there was some good 850 WAA today.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM looks even more interesting, if more marginal: ?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still a looooong ways to go, but there may be some over performance potential with this set up:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Interesting beyond the gif above. It seems like that western ridge is reluctant, as you were saying, and the TPV is only pushed over by a building Greenland block, if we take this verbatim. Will be interesting to see how it plays out and how it looks without the smoothed mean. Some of the images were missing on weathermodels, so that is why it blanks out a bit towards the end.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    EPS looks pretty similar at that timestamp:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some fun perpendicular wave clouds coming off of the Smokies and the Frozen Head mts today, crashing together over Morristown:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are the overnight ensembles for those interested. Not much change as far as I can tell: Trough is wanting to shift N and W. Convection has has seemed to have picked up over the dreaded Maritime Continent (MC) over the past couple of days, after a nice flare up in the central- Western Pac, but this AM at least, it looks kinda anemic and scattered again, compared to how it looked when I checked last night. Also note the "Pac Jet of Woe"(c) screaming across the central Pac. It may be that the lessening of convection this morning led to this solution on the OP 6z GFS: what had been just a big ol cutter, now looks like a more easterly, weaker cutter, with a little wave riding its front from the Gulf up the coast. To be fair there's probably more going on that a slight change in Tropical Convection. Correlation doesn't mean causation, but I have noticed sometimes or at least think I've noticed (lol) how the way models see that convection has impacts in their solutions.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    The overnight Euro and AM GFS still like something like a clipper with the next piece of energy (not the one for this weekend, but early next week). Snow looks elevation/ time of day dependent for now. The mesoscale models haven't gotten that far yet, so will be interesting to see what they do with it over the weekend. Ensembles have it too, but with a spread between nothing and more interaction with s. stream energy. Late bonus add UKMET:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Blunderstorm, Kentucky, and upper E TN folks, what the long range NAM taketh away one run, it returneth, yea yes and verily, on the next:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro closer to something interesting with the second piece of energy as it kicks out of the SW and interacts with a N. stream piece. Pieces are there on the GFS, CMC, UKMET, and ICON, just a question of how they all dance.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    So much flipping and flopping by models on the weekend system. Now the 6z NAM has gone to almost totally losing it by dumping more energy over N. Mexico. But now, even though the Euro still has some version of it, both the NAM and the Euro seem to be seeing a chance for the left over energy to interact with another (lol) piece of N. stream energy. As it stands on the 0z Euro it would be too positively tilted to do much for us, but as Carvers has noted there is soooo much energy flying around, it almost isn't worth looking at either this weekend's set up or the one I gifed above, more than 24 hours out, if that. Like Wurbus said, models really like the Dec 14 - 17 period for some sort of storm in the east. It fits one of the ways we get storms, as a pattern is shifting or reshuffling, or breaking down, a period ensembles are starting to see at the very ends of their runs. Storm-->arctic dump-->pattern shift. EPS's vision for that window, as of 0z today: But as the EPS city charts hint at, there are cutters, miller As, and Miller Bs all mixed in there and even some where a cutter leads to a Miller A/B. Tis the season for hope though, until it isn't, lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro is dancing to the NAM's tune.: I don't have the precip. maps yet, but look at the energy racing in from Canada. Someone in the interior from PA to ME is gonna get blasted if this whole thing comes together.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    RGEM out to hour 84 verbatim would be a heart breaker, but I suspect, if this were to verify, there might be more fun after hour 84:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM is trying to do some kind of odd ball, last minute phase on the weekend storm:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z UKMET is in:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
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