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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    It’s a stout line. Will be interesting to see how long thunder stays with it!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    The dynamics of this system are, in some ways, already out performing the models. NAMs, WRF-ARW2, HRRR, and RGEM for 9 PM tonight, vs reality:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think so. There is a Mountain Wave forecast for this system. So far, at least in my area, its dynamics are stout.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    0z day of. Time to walk the line:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's 8:50 PM, do you know where your SREF trends are ?????
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Working now. Not sure what happened for a bit. Probably that well-shaped dollop again.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Something weird going on with the gifs, I'm having a hard time uploading them
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    My 18z Euro is still only out to hr 21 with winter panels, but here is the 3 hr precip from hour 24, when it looks like mostly changed over:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Always like it when the airmass is so cold, you can see it in IR satellite during the day: Grays that look like clouds sliding through SE OK, but there are no clouds, just cold: Front is popping some convection now too, over central AR: and speaking of lapse rate snow showers, they look pretty healthy in the upper left of that gif, over KS
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Def a fan of the RGEM for my area. Everything else is too little too late for most of MoCo: Really interested to see if something like those convective bands verify under the lapse rates of the upper low.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    **For Entertainment Purposes Only** It really likes the Mt Rogers area/ Grayson Highlands area
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Took a drive to Sparta TN yesterday. Beautiful views of the western edge of the plateau looking towards Cookeville: Also, cool sunrise this AM up here, some cirrus, before dawn, were catching the sun: I had to tweak the above mage a bit to capture the almost eerie look, due to low light. Sunrise:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    No worries. I had just dealt with a BS work email and was a little edgy. I think I probably took it in a way you didn't mean it. Christmas snow is serious business, lol!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Back on this storm note, I'm really looking forward to @BuCoVaWx obs for this. If you can take some pictures please do. I think you are as close to the bull's eye as anyone on here. I'll be with the Kingsport crew tomorrow to see my folks for Christmas, hoping I can get home in time to see the changeover, but expect it may have already happened when I get home around 4. I will be driving down 81 as the changeover works it's way east and NE.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Me too. I keep trying to remember that one, but can't. I remember the weather channel met Bruce Edwards coming on and saying something like, "Well we were expecting the moisture to come north and it just didn't happen." I vaguely remember the radar image and I think convection parallel to the Gulf cut off the moisture feed??
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Maybe one of these decades we'll have storm where none of this micro or meso trends--thread the needle stuff matters and we can just all enjoy a general snow dump forum wide. Low track from NoLa to Greenville, NC and a 1035 high over Michigan.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I agree, what I'm trying to get across, in case someone sees me post a SREF plume or H5 plot, is that I'm using it for trends, (or pure snow weenie fun), not as a serious verbatim forecasting NWP model.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    And anybody that uses the SREF plumes for anything other than a curious interest in the NAM or just out of pure weather weenie snow lust, is not too bright. I know I post them sometimes, but I try to be judicious about how I do it. I hope I haven't given anyone the idea that I take them seriously. If so, apologies.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't know if I would jump either, just based on climo as well as a common sense and level-headed evaluation of the bust potential, but I don't think the RGEM is a joke.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    The rum's worn off now @kvskelton, no more Latin until this evening, lol. 6z Euro: 3 hr snowfall: totals 10:1 (no Kuchera ratios available to me for the 6/18z runs):
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, I was curious how the sharper SREF trough would end up on the NAM. Pulls it right up the windward side of the Apps and cranks it back over eastern OH: Let's hypothesize for the moment, that this is pivot point on these runs. If this is the furthest west the NAM goes, is there a scenario where the MSLP tracks like this, and we split the difference between the east and west solutions: And, to be fair, the rum has had it's effect at this point and this could just be a cast
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    O Fortuna, velut Luna statu variablilis semper crescis aut decrescis nive detestabilis SREF nunc obdurat et tunc curat ludet mentis aciem
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2020122121&id=SREF_500MB-HGHT_VORT__
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    PBP is the way. 21z SREF is, so far, sharper with the trough, if not deeper (15z vs 21z). Sharpest depiction of the trough yet:
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