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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I was wondering how much energy was being left behind by the Ukie. My F5 Ukie maps are pretty slow, so that's why I went to Meteorcentre. That Ukie map looks lit to me!
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET looks interesting out to 144: Looks like it is pulling the front through and leaving some energy behind, about to swing across TX
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    One thing I do like about this, is that the cold front seems like the real deal. Pretty much universal agreement that a strong cold front associated with a highly amplified trough, is going to sweep through late next week.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Dang, even Chatt gets ~ .70 frozen!
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    CMC looks like it will be a middle ground between the ICON and GFS, probably better for central and western areas.
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    The good news is, now that we are in a bulls eye a week out, we CAN trend to severe! It's not
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's Friday, so happy hour is at noon(note we will pay for it on the 18 z run):
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much to add other than a tour de ensembles: The old 6z GEFS members were slinging Christmas presents: The new GEFS had some presents too, but not as many: EPS were looking better than they had in a few days: One thing that I found interesting was that the Euro Control was much more excited about the window: I included EPS member 42 on that gif too, since it was pretty enthusiastic for many in our forum. Some of you have mentioned that Euro seems like it overamps systems at this range, at least this season. If that's the case, given that the control is a lower resolution run, that it is a snowier run is notable? I think that's Winter Weenie Handbook Rule #34, right? I know y'all mentioned the CMC above, but since I've been posting on how it handles the energy, I did also want to mention that it has come around to the Euro and GFS in how it handles it. But wait, the NAM at hour 84, keeps that energy more consolidated further east??!!
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    (Said in my best Tiny Tim voice) It's a Christmas Clipper!!! A happy hour miracle!!!
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    But wait, we have the KMA on our side too, looking good. What could go wrong?
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro : CMC: That's the difference between the two.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Euro OP is now the least amplified with the energy, but only the CMC brings that extra bit onshore with the rest of it. That seems to be the difference between a FROPA with maybe some Anafrontal precip or a bigger storm for some one east of the Mississippi.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    UKMET is coming in deeper with the energy than its 0z run, as it crosses the Rockies. It only goes out to 144, but will the Euro do the same? Ukie 0z: Ukie 12z: Here's the 12z CMC for comparison:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Took a run up to Frozen Head, above 3000 feet. A nice dusting and some rime ice: My house even had.... Wait for it... A slushy accumulation less than one inch on... ELEVATED SURFACES!!!!!
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    All three have the main piece of energy, and have for a few days, just a question of how the interaction happens. Like y'all said, the CMC was a beut! A full on triple phaser (and about to be quadruple phaser over NE): The main piece drops across the Bitter Route range along the MT/ ID border. GFS: Euro: That little extra piece of energy that the CMC has coming across Northern CA, both the GFS and Euro snip it off over the Pac, and that piece seems to be the key to the CMC's big dog. Some of the new 6z GEFS members have low popping on the front: The EPS has a few too.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think one of the reason some of the longer range looks have seemed to go downhill a little (as I look at 500mb heights on the same GFS post hour 300), may have to do with a convection flare up, north of the equator, over the ever popular MJO regions 5 and 6: Compare to a few days ago:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    Gives our N. areas a nice overrunning event, but that piece of energy over Cabo just gets stuck. Two big highs drop down through hr 280:
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think Happy Hour GFS is about to create some wonky bizarro storm. Dropping energy over Cabo San Lucas after Christmas.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Snow level with the last gasp band over E TN now is at around 900 feet above the radar beam, which is at about 1100 feet in Morristown. So around 2000 feet and falling. Cameras and reports from NC High country say it is rippin' over there. Maybe Bays Mt. and other areas around that elevation can get in a few flakes before it ends:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well the good news is, we’re not in any bulls eyes for the 24 or 25th yet, so it can’t trend to severe yet.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I may have to drive out to see the conjunction. My horizon in that direction is a little too high to see it. @nrgjeff I'm so happy with the night skies where I live now. Def will be getting more astronomy equipment when I get the $$.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looking coolish in some spots, up against the eastern plateau. Glad I have a bunch of firewood for tomorrow.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not much more than a curiosity, but the NAM, RAP, and HRRR show some snow trying to move up I-40 from Memphis towards Nashville tomorrow AM between 7 AM and 10 AM central time. The NAM is the least interested, but ti still has a brief window, and here is it's sounding: The Euro shows some mixed precip, but not much more. I'm betting too little too late, in terms of cold chasing moisture, but will be watching when I wake up tomorrow to see if anything like this happens. Here is the latest HRRR, for full snowy, and probably overdone, effect.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    This time weathermodels had all snow too.
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