purduewx80

Too much cloud cover where the better forcing/winds are. As @Chicago Storm just mentioned, eastern IA thru N IL/IN will be where the best wind potential sets up. You can see the inflow jet developing in SW WI now on KMKX. That's ~60-65MPH at 10,000' (~700 mb) w/ the warned cell. There could still be a supercell/tornado threat as new cells develop near the Quad Cities along the remnant outflow/differential heating gradient.

KLOT radar has been down for about 20 min. Would be a crappy day to lose it.

Can see our two main MCVs (X'd below) this morning on composite loops (link is time sensitive). The one in SW MN is what will drive the primary swath of severe later in the day. You can even see the faster flow in the light precip on its southern flank.

Models overnight have not handled most of the convection out in Iowa. We’ll see how that plays into destabilization later. Plenty of time though.

Over/under on rounds of storms - 3?

Nice discussion from LOT this morning:

Yes, thanks for pointing that out. Will be important to watch growth across NE the next few hours where most guidance has an MCV evolving. The general consensus on 18Z placement of that feature is in the vicinity of south-central or SE WI. Would expect PM sfc-based development to be most likely E-thru-S of that.

Fair enough. I do think it'll affect what latitude is at the greater risk and agree with @A-L-E-K that the threat is probably farther south than the SPC currently expects.

Tomorrow looking like a NOWCAST day in terms of severe weather to me. The upgrade to enhanced is possibly a bit premature given signs of junky WAA convection throwing a wrench in where the best destabilization occurs. Potential is certainly there for multiple swaths of wind damage, however.

Friday looks interesting. Strongest 700-500mb flow is across WI and lower MI. Lapse rates are on the meh side, but instability is more than sufficient for severe given the progged shear. This should result in some bowing segments ahead of the front.

new cells blowing up quickly on the outflow boundary from that first round. warning for northern Cook...looks like some hail in that too.

The details are a bit different depending on what guidance you look at, but there is pretty good ensemble support for extended heat as we close out June and head into July. Pattern is amped. EPS below.

Not 100% sure what you mean. I can't say for sure, but I imagine the 50+ crowd is taking more precautions. Hopefully with their children and grandchildren, too.

exactly...keep those cases up through summer, and wave two will be so much more widespread come fall. i would imagine (and hope) we'll see more mask requirements at the state level in the short term.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/22/health/covid-younger-adults-lower-death-rate-trnd/index.html

looks like a decent chance of storms around here by midday or early afternoon. nice 700mb wave coming in with ample sun ahead of it. drier dews could allow for some pulse type, outflow-dominant activity. the lucky ones will probably see 2-3 rounds today according to most of the latest hi-res.

Nailed it. July 4th and the 1-2 weeks after should be interesting given tomorrow’s Tulsa experiment.

Nice little "surprise" storm here in the Loop with small hail tapping on the windows of Willis.

Also:

But it doesn’t according to at least one state epidemiologist. “Early on, South Carolina took the essential steps needed to flatten the curve,” Alberg said. “The problem has been re-opening too soon, which has led to a very large upsurge in COVID-19 cases that cannot be accounted for solely due to the increased testing for active SARS-CoV-2 infections.“ https://www.thedailybeast.com/is-south-carolina-already-on-a-second-wave-of-covid-19?ref=scroll

boom BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville 814 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Will County in northeastern Illinois... Kankakee County in northeastern Illinois... Southeastern Cook County in northeastern Illinois... Northern Lake County in northwestern Indiana... * Until 930 AM CDT. * At 813 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Peotone to near Chebanse, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Chicago, Hammond, Gary, Orland Park, Tinley Park, Oak Lawn, Calumet City, Merrillville, Chicago Heights, East Chicago, Schererville, Hobart, Lansing, Kankakee, New Lenox, Highland, Blue Island, Munster, Dolton and Park Forest. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Gonna be another couple rounds in Chicago today the way it looks, in addition to the pre-dawn activity. That line in central IL was fairly poorly modeled and may be the precursor to the main show in IN/MI/OH later. I'd watch the outflow boundary just S/E of Chicago into SW MI for possible spinups. Plenty of heating for the upper low and jet streak to produce a developing arc midday that will rotate into WI and train on the southeastern third of the Badger State.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0891.html