purduewx80

Pretty good signal for TSSN and/or TSPL with the deepening lows passing by too. Heck of a way to end a warm spell.

Averaging the four major globals would put dew points near 60F w/ PWATs well over 1". More than enough w/ those dynamics in November. Having the high where it is and the tropical in the Gulf could actually be a good thing in that an indirect feed of moisture (from the Atlantic rather than the Gulf) won't allow for widespread low clouds to reduce the chances of heating up ahead of the front. To me, the more likely thing that could go wrong is that the Rockies energy ejects in pieces, in a positively tilted junk way that doesn't allow for a more consolidated, deepening low. Some guidance still hints at that scenario.

There is typical disagreement for being ~5 days out, but this would probably be a decent severe weather threat next Tuesday if it verifies: Cue the La Nina SE ridge being amped up by a November Gulf hurricane.

74 at ORD today tied the record.

Except it’s HUGELY relevant.

The New Orleans NWS office was able to launch their 00Z sounding within the eye. It recorded their warmest 500mb temperature in its history (back to 1948).

It sounds to me like you're saying protests occurred en masse because of "lockdowns" - is that what you're getting at? What you also clearly don't get is the plight of Black Americans, who by the way, are still disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

Good news, and they point out that it's due to a number of reasons. 1) we know more now than in the spring, 2) more widely available treatment options, 3) more widespread wearing of masks reduces initial doses of the virus and 4) hospitals aren't overwhelmed (for now). They specifically point out that if hospitals become 100% saturated that numbers will go back up. Every state in the Midwest has a rising percent positive case rate. Obviously, testing is increasing now because more people are getting sick. The percent positive case rate is also increasing on average at the national level and is now above 5%.

"In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin." But where's the hydroxychloroquine?

it's incredibly sad you still believe this.

wake me up when your at-risk kid catches it and you're still downplaying everything.

Initial estimates of crop damage alone are $3.4 billion. Who'd have thought an August derecho would be on 2020's list of billion dollar disasters?

I love these:

HRRR and HRRRx did well, as did the RPM (IBM/WSI's ARW), IBM GRAF and the hi-res Canadian (HRDPS).

LOT just issued a high wind warning for the back side.

DPA gusting to 60MPH now behind the line.

Now 72 MPH

Spotter report of golf-ball sized hail in the line near Plainfield. Almost hard to believe, but if true, extra damaging when associated with severe winds.

One of those microscale circulations is just west of KLOT radar, which is estimating 100-105MPH winds 500' above the ground, so likely reaching the surface. KLOT will probably go down if it holds together.

Unrelated, but there is a large fire in Franklin Park. The smoke plume shows up on radar over O'Hare.

strongest winds on the leading edge are associated with microscale bows and are more isolated. note the stronger/longer duration winds are associated with lighter precip, indicative of the downward motion associated with the descending rear inflow jet (blue areas in velocity on the right-most image).

Other way around