purduewx80

Current surface water temps on southern parts of LM: Goes to show you how easy it is to wipe out shallow warmth, especially when deeper parts of the lake have temps in the low 40s.

nice! I think this type of ob would've been a bit more widespread had the earlier elevated convection not tempered low-level lapse rates/instability.

DVN radar indicating ~80mph winds around 3500' with those. Curious to see if that cluster rides the front into Chicago towards midday or early afternoon.

A precipitable water value of 2.37" on the 12Z DVN sounding is among the top 5 highest observed there, and is only 0.10" away from the record.

Will have to see the 12Z upper air data to determine capping and the convective trigger temp, but timing out what's here now, this activity will be near Detroit around 17-18Z/1-2ET. Plenty of time to heat up from the looks of it.

good observation. obviously depends on a lot of factors, but if the air mass is able to destabilize to surface-based convection owing to the lack of debris clouds, then things can fire up quickly.

it really is constant. love it.

Upper-level WV imagery is key to finding these subtle shortwaves that kick off warm-season convection. I haven't really seen any guidance catch onto the activity over Chicago, etc now. Going back to 0930Z, look how the cells fire on the leading edge of that darker spot on WV. Model assimilation needs to be able to key in on these features to get it right.

@Hoosier I have to question why the mods keep allowing people to make such blatantly political posts.

Might have to rely on that shortwave in SW Iowa or the cluster in KS/NE to help light up the front tomorrow morning.

Nice soundings out of MPX (Minne) and DVN (Quad Cities) this evening. The classic 700-500mb lapse rates don't necessarily tell the story; LR are very steep just below there. Looks like the capping inversion was near 850mb at DVN and around 800mb at MPX.

That right-mover near Minneapolis should be poised to follow the MLCAPE gradient into WI. Often these supercells grow upscale into an MCV, so this is more than likely the start of the MCS the Euro has been advertising.

agreed. as others have pointed out, there are positives to MCS maintenance that time of night.

I have a feeling the MN derecho will put a damper on high temps in parts of the region tomorrow. Curious to see how far right this thing turns overnight.

I dunno, most guidance suggests whatever is left moves through Chicago/N IN Sunday morning...pretty much the least favorable time for severe wx, climatologically.

yeah, looks like that AM HRRR run was about 50 miles and 10-15KT off. As of the 10PM obs: DKB: 1.64" MDW: 0.77" ORD: 0.40"

for now I'm more enthused about the potential for excessive rain in the metro. nice signal for a prolonged low level jet focus in the area this evening...including the 12Z NAM (below) and 09/12Z RPM.

Stranger things have happened. The MCV that developed over Lake Erie a few days ago also had a surface circulation and winds near these levels. The MCV already has a surface low co-located with it, and there are 30-35KT gusts N and E of it down in KS this morning. If it is able to maintain some convection near its center, then something along those lines is possible this evening. Similar to the Brown Ocean Effect sometimes allowing tropical systems to intensify over land when you have sufficient heat and moisture flux from the ground.

This pandemic is revealing how poorly educated average Americans are in science. There’s a HUGE difference between gases and droplets containing viruses, but keep believing your conspiracy theories and see where that gets ya.

Science and technology will help us win in the end, so I'm not sure I'd say never. I'm definitely not convinced the old American Way will be part of our future, though.

another big ol' check in the bad news column. re-infections have occurred within a few months for some people and are often worse the 2nd time around. rosy visions of herd immunity and vaccines knocking this out should be put on hold until larger-sample-sized studies can be done.

MCV + 2" PWATs....gonna be some flood threat too. Also...this is unreal for July. Phenomenal jet dynamics in play.

this explains a lot about your position on the virus and economy.

This RAP fcst sounding from the southern tip of Lake Michigan at 12Z tomorrow morning is nothing short of impressive. That's lake-induced CAPE...suspect there will be some waterspouts out there in the morning. Can't rule out a thunderstorm making it into parts of Chicago and NW Indiana as the surge of cooler air moves in. 00Z HRRR valid at 12Z:

upper low moving in will support destabilization. projecting out cells in NE IA now...they would be here closer to 11-12, but there could be some development out ahead of it. Cu growth has occurred so you can see the signs of instability building behind the AM activity.