Albedoman

well here is the forecast for Yosemite Ca. Only in our wildest dreams for here. In just one night, they get more than our entire two seasons worth Tonight Snow, mainly after 8pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to near 15 by 8pm, then rising to around 20 during the remainder of the night. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible. Thursday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. South wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 21 to 27 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 18. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible. Friday Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 27. West southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

wash and repeat for New Years Eve. two+ inches of rain, temps in the 50's to the 60's after this brief cold snap. I see no major snow events unfold as the cold air is bottled up in Hudson Bay for the foreseeable future. The only hope is a coastal storm after New Years day but even that will melt away in a few days if the snow accumulates All I can say is I really tired of the severe wind storms. I have at least 2.5 years of major tree damage in my backyard from these high winds. Two more trees were uprooted last night and branches were everywhere. If we get another soaker by next weekend with a windstorm, the ground is so saturated that even more trees will fall in our region. The ground will not stay frozen and that is a real big issue right now. I see no below zero weather anywhere east of the MS river in the next 10 days. Even my relatives in western Wi are complaining of little snow and no cold air.

I am sorry but I do not see a real serious flooding issue with rainfall in this upcoming event for area. Past history in our area with these type of arctic frontal passages with a significant snow pack is that a good portion of the snow pack melts because of the formation of very dense fog (snow eater) in the warm saturated air before frontal passage which helps limits convective rainfall events even with warmer temps. I do however see some extensive snow pack melting from the dense fog from the high dewpoints and somewhat warm winds right before frontal passage but the frontal passage should be quick. I see the very brief heavy rainfall as a squall line with winds really gusty over 45 mph during and after the frontal passage . What concerns me is the front will move so quickly that you will have freezing rain/sleet and a significant flash freeze potential with a few inches of snow directly behind the front for most areas east of State College. The temps in eastern Pa/NJ will go from the mid to upper 40's to below freezing in less than two to three hours. Just my thoughts from over 30 years of watching these events unfold. I experienced the 1996 flooding and hit my house hard but that was a totally different animal than this arctic front. https://www.dep.state.pa.us/dep/deputate/watermgt/GENERAL/FLOODS/fld96rpt.htm

to all my weather friends on this forum. You are the first to know Just received this from PEMA Good Afternoon . Thank you con contacting the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency. The Governor will be issuing a State of Emergency Declaration for this snow storm (December 16-17). You will have to check with Lehigh County directly to see if they are going to issue a County Disaster Declaration. Regards. Tim Timothy L. Roth | Emergency Management Supervisor Private Sector Liaison External Affairs Office Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency 1310 Elmerton Avenue | Harrisburg PA 17110-9713 www.PEMA.pa.gov | www.Ready.PA.gov Stay Calm, Stay Alert, Stay Safe Like us on facebook.com/PEMAHQ Follow us on Twitter @PEMAHQ and @PEMADirector Learn how to Be Informed, Be Prepared, and Be Involved at www.Ready.PA.gov

should not even be looking at the long range GFS runs now they are crap.- Euro, NAM and RGEM for the win The GFS shows a donut hole over the LV now- C'mon give me a break. For 4 days the LV has been in the jackpot zone. Trash the GFS in this range

I just cannot understand why Mt. Holly is gun shy about Mondays snow event. The NAM has been consistent now for days on showing at least 5 " in for the LV but tonights forecast says less than 1/2 inch. Evap cooling will overtake and they keep ignoring this possibility. I have seen it so many times in the LV in this situation. The ground temps are still cool as demonstrated by the ground by the dense fog advisory tonight? The model indicates at least an advisory level event for days now. Honestly, if Mondays event drops 4 in like I am expecting plus another 16+ in on Wednesday. it should set the record for the most snow in December for the LV. What a Christmas gift Additionally, the Wednesday snow event could be some major snow drifting issues that we have not seen here in nearly a decade or longer. It could be a storm to remember for sure. Nobody has brought that up along with a good chance of thundersnow has the low bombs out.

still in the bullseye 9" for the LV on the ECM

LV will get something at least. We have been in the bullseye for the CMC, Euro and GFS in todays runs for at least 6" or more. To see model agreement 7 days out is a nice change. I just hope they all do not agree to take it ups the Apps or out to sea in later runs. If its an inland runner, dam I hate cold rains. If the LP sits over the Chesapeake Bay area, big time snows accumulations when it goes negative tilt for NW of the fall line- can you say CCB set up?