BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Watch DCA get above freezing tomorrow.

Any word if the 1km NAM will be run over us?

2mb stronger high compared to a couple runs ago and slightly slower progression on the 18z 3km NAM.

The only difference I see is the radar penetration into sw WV.

ttb has 6-7" as of 15z. Not bad

Please move to Alexandria.

This is a really interesting read about sleet! https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/incredible-sleet-stories-vol-i/46374

I'm expecting 3-6" snow, 1-3" sleet, .10" freezing rain DCA.

2 more runs

Heavy too!

It's okay, but we don't have a lot of room for another nudge in the wrong direction.

Sorry, that's 18z. Pivotal doesn't have 15z.

It definitely trended north since 0z.

Hr24 looks a nudge warmer, but also appears to be heavier with snow for D.C.

The sounding at 15z will be very important.

Slight nudge north at hr12 compared to 0z.

Now she's running!

My bad, I think Pivotal just added the 12z tag without any maps. lol

Euro is starting.

Valentine's Day 2007 is the top second analog for 24h. Could this actually not become as intense now? https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2026012412&dt=2007121612&HH=0&map=SYN1

Are there any historical records of sleet alone?

It better resembles the terrain and elevation.

Isotherms trended north.

I would recommend watching some of Fox 5's Mike Thomas's Facebook lives. You will learn a lot!

Red line is temperature. Green line is dew point. The solid black line that rises to the top right indicates the freezing level from the ground upward. Precipitation falls when the temperature and dew point line are touching at the bottom of the chart (the ground). Snow falls when the temperature and dew point lines stay to the left of the solid black freezing line. When you see the temperature line make a triangular shape bulge to the right of the freezing line, this indicates melting in that layer. If the raindrop continues to fall and the temperature line moves back to the left of the freezing line, the raindrop will refreeze. If the warm layer is high enough above the ground, the precipitation will be sleet, but if the triangular bulge happens near the ground, then rain will re-freeze as freezing rain.