kvegas-wx

It's a damn fine day down here in Jax FL. I appreciate you fine FL peeps bringing out the sun and almost 80°. Now back to my NC mudfest.

Foothills up in Stuart VA. Got the lawn ready to lime like crazy, kill the moss by March and overseed into April. Mother Nature is doing a fine job right now. None of us will suffer from the winter blues and we may still bank a couple of storms in Fab Feb.

I'll take the under for $500 please. 70° patterns in January dont give up that easily. I'll ride the mild air until I see the Pac ridge lock in for more than a day or two.

I've been telling you folks to enjoy the heck out of what you have today cuz the rest of winter could easily be cool and wet. I mowed today, cleaned some trash in the woods, swept out the barn, went on a trail ride, and on and on. What an outstanding day!!

Should have some OBS coming in over the next 45 minutes. Post em if ya got em. Watching my security cams up in Stuart and waiting for that line back around Mt Airy to blow thru. 70mph gusts with that one. Get those chainsaws ready.

384 ALWAYS hints...... I'm just totally done with this wet pattern. Bring me warm and dry at this point.

Somebody from CLT south is getting ready to have a bad night. Worried about these high winds across the triad too as wet as the ground is. Power outages ahead me thinks.

For posterity sake, it is 61° outside on Jan 11th at 7:45 in the morning. I've had July and August mornings start off the same way. This pattern is simply amazing.

I want to report the follow observation. My grass is getting greener and the seed is starting to come up. That is all.

We used to say BOOM alot back in the good old days when Burger was here calling the PBP on the Euro. You know, back when BOOM actually meant something. Now....well now we just say NEXT!

100 mile NW shift and we're all out of it except climo favored areas. Next!!

Radar says it should be snowing here in Stuart but the ground truth is a 33° cold rain. Bummer. 8:45 edit - I have a few slush flakes mixing in. Probably about as good as this one is gonna get here at the lower elevations in Patrick County Va.

I will say, kinda feels and smells like snow outside for the first time. May head up to the farm in Stuart tomorrow to see a half inch of slush. But it may be all we can muster until Fab Feb.

So easy to overlook when it is just one event. I said last year after it happened that it would take multiple 3-4" events for people to feel like it was a normal winter. When you get the whole boatload all at once, especially in December, all anyone remembers is the weeks of nothing from Jan-Mar.

Only if you sit around all day analyzing it. If you just enjoy what you have it ain't too shabby! I cant tell you how much work I got done over the holiday period that I didn't get done during our extended October summer. If Mother Nature is giving me my fall in January I would be perfectly fine getting my winter in March.

But, but, but.....it just takes one storm! Miracle March will save us! I'm gonna spend my day off trolling Weather UToobers and their clickbaiting ways to keep me out of the sanitarium.

It's the 18z. Next!

The pattern is awful. So rest assured at this point there wont be any significant cold "sneaking up on us". We'll see it build over 10-14 days if and when trends turn in our favor. Until then, enjoy the early spring, late fall, whatever! If I had 4 months out of the year be exactly like today I would be quite the happy camper.

It'll moderate......to about 67° in Elkins, WV. And that will be on the heels of 3 straight days of rain. Face it folks, we are now almost halfway into January with a LR forecast and no wholesale changes towards a more favorable pattern are in sight. The winter battle will be fought over 8 weeks from mid Jan to mid March and given how far off-base most of the forecasts have been thus far, I dont think anyone knows what the heck might happen for those 8 weeks.

We were supposed to have so much in our favor in terms of indexes as stated by many winter prognosticators. On top of that we also have minimal sunspot activity. And precip seems to be at a premium at the moment. I'm sure it's cold somewhere, it just ain't on the east coast. As I said in the sanitarium last week, we have 10 weeks to cash in and the clock starts now at 240 hrs out. We can still have a blowout year but we better start seeing a pattern flip in the LR mighty quick.

Outside of the occasional 1-2 day cold shot, could it be another Death Ridge for the win?? One more week of nothingburger means we are into January and crossing our fingers we nail something down in the 10 week period to mid March. The line to the cliff begins now.

So much for my last minute Christmas shopping. Somebody track this day by day for the next 13 days and lets do a post mortem on just how bad this crapcast actually is. I'll go with dry and 42° for the day.

I expect lots of venting too. We are on the doorstep of the 2018 December Destroyer so most of us by this time last year were already looking at 120% of our annual avg. This year we are waiting on pattern alignment, we are well into December before fantasy snow is showing up, which means we will be well into January before any real chances surface. I can see us ending up with the slightly BN temps this winter that are being forecasted, but I can also see us being on the southern edge of the storm track all winter too. It's the curse we endure. I would holster that for now or risk living here in the sanitarium this winter.

I know you werent here last year James so I will remind you we banked more than this forecast in one single event....in December......drops mic..... I'm underwhelmed. Tell me 20"+ for the triad and I might perk up.

I read this as we have more chances to fail. Improved storm track brings better odds at precip, but milder cold shots to work with. We always take the deep cold first down south and then see what precip we can find. Otherwise its cold chasing moisture on repeat. The only saving grace I can see here is the possibility for deepening storm systems bringing their own cold source and we get a big dog or two. But you hate to hedge the winter bet on big dogs.