kvegas-wx

7 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

The HRRR is the Oprah of models.  You get snow and you get snow and you get snow and you get snow...

I swear I'm looking at the same 18z on TT and only seeing 3 inches across most of the state.  It's almost like I'm missing the last frame or something.  Either way, impressive!

HRRR with a nice 2-3 inches for a good chunk of central NC.  When was the last time we saw nearly every model evolve "into" a storm within 60 hours?

1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

We can do an obs thread if need be.

But only after the entire I85 corridor has at least 2" on the ground.  We'll need a running start to truly overcome the jinx.  

Edit - how cool would it be to end up with back to back surprise events only 3 days apart!  I love model suspense.

Step away from the keyboard now if you are even thinking about starting a thread for this one.  Just leave it here, just this once, and see what happens.  Then we'll have conclusive proof of our jinx.

Just now, magpiemaniac said:

Yeah.  Someone explain this without the customary, “Ah, it’s just the GFS.”  

What in the Joe Bastardi is going on here??  Somebody please offer a red tag quality explanation cuz I'm lost among these bi-polar models today.

9 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Are you a brotha by chance?

Just dealing with my inner Chad Ocho-Cinco.  Seems to come out more every year during the playoffs when my Bengals are sitting at home.  I think Chad would have been an excellent weather personality.

20 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Looks like the 3k has up to 2” for a significant chunk of Orange and Durham. 

Child please......

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

If the NAM verifies with the wedge tomorrow and temperatures in northern/central NC don't get quite as high as originally predicted, that would bode better for temperatures cooling off quicker wednesday night 

Yeah, I just saw what @Grayman posted regarding the NAM temp forecast.  I agree this is a plausible scenario.  I'm just not buying it this go round.  This has 35 and rain written all over it.  Even during the Jan 8th event we ended up 2-3 degrees above forecast here in the triad and only for a brief moment did rates overcome temps.  And I think the NAM was off on that one within 24 hours as well, assuming my memory serves me correctly.

As I scroll through the last 2-3 pages of posts catching up, many folks here are simply piecing together the best attributes of many disparate model runs and calling it a forecast.  There is another common term used here.......wishcasting!  From marginal temps to timing to track there are many things insufficient to support a meaningful snow event with this setup.  I wouldn't want to be in the "I got my hopes up" camp after this one.  2.4" way down into the sandhills with no cold air source?  6" in south Wake?  C'mon son, it's time to kiss da baby.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It puts the NAM on its skin or else it gets the GFS/CMC/EURO/UK/RGEM again 

Is that you Buffalo Bill?  Fans of weather we are.

Brilliant!

Still far out as most have noted, but the system timing at present is overnight Wednesday.  Just one more check mark in favor of accumulations if this pans out.  These are some great looking ducks, and they happen to be on a pond.

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

NOAA outlook for the next 3 months is pretty bad. 

Meaningless unless you are a trend watcher.  I can make 150% of my annual snowfall in 36 hours just like Dec 2018.  I dont need, nor want it to be cold for 3 months.  I just need a 36 hour window as a friendly LP system happens to stroll on by.....

34 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Surprise this morning in Dry Fork

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

I was at the farm in Stuart this morning and getting the very light flurries but noticed the radar really filled in nicely with the heavier returns just east towards Martinsville.  Glad you got a surprise!

Very light flurries up at the farm in Stuart Va and in Kernersville.  Maybe a teaser for Magnificent March!

Ugh....the silence is deafening.  Its either Winter Cancel, or everyone is playing out their deepest superstitions by not talking about it.  Either way our winter is two days away from being half over.  (I view anything in March as icing on a very rare cake)  We're gonna need some serious halftime adjustments because our first half ended by dropping the ball before we crossed the goal line.  The fans are restless.

3 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

The South of the Border Crusher: Actually just misses to the north. Pedro would have been  happy in 9 days. Is that place still open??

 

I've been watching this board for many years now and I honestly cant recall a storm modeled like that.  I'm gonna say that doesnt pan out quite that way.

I was happy to see my dusting and got some cool drone footage flying in the snow.  But I invested waaayyy to much sleepy time in Katherine.  Lesson learned when we dont have a reliable cold source.  We easily had the QPF for a 3-5" storm in the Triad.  But relying on the boundary layer to win the day for us was just delirium.  Wont fall for that again.  

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Gigantic flakes coming down

Told ya so .. . . 

Got the drone up!  First time flying in the snow.  That was cool.  May try to film later once everything is fully coated.  If only.......

1 minute ago, Wow said:

closer to downtown.. nada

yeah i know it's coming

LOL.  My daughter lives in Noda and is freaking out.  She's like Dad, its circling me but it wont snow here!

7 minutes ago, Wow said:

will be rain with snow mixed in.. el busto

You're about to change your tune my friend.  Maybe only for 30 minutes, but it's coming.

you can watch the pivot happen right around Boonville and East Bend on radar.  Precip moves NNW and then stops and starts filling back in moving ESE.  Should be a fun afternoon for many.

8 minutes ago, SENC said:

Can (I) assume the ULL is making the "transfer" ATM? To the Coast?

We went from Sunny to VERY cloudy Skies, in the past hour..

 

Cloud deck has Lowered,  & looks (Ominous)  AND NWS is now calling for a "mix" here on the Coast, Later this afternoon/tonight..

Likely so.  I've been watching the radar like a hawk the last hour and sure enough the northerly movement of the precip around the triad has just about stopped.  Starting to see some precip heading ESE out of the mountains now.  I love my chances at a full afternoon snow at the farm in Stuart now.  It's just going to set up camp right over my barn!

EDIT - temp has dropped below freezing now too.  Sticking like crazy!

Starting to get a little excited that the farm in Stuart might end up near the pivot.  Radar looks quite robust back to the WSW and as the day progresses all of that moisture looks to swing thru.  I'm quickly headed for a half inch on the security cams, but stay tuned, this could get interesting real quick.  For you too @BornAgain13 and @Buddy1987

Full dusting now in Stuart Va.  Still coming down at a good clip.  Maybe squeeze out a half inch or so?