Thinksnow18

Man the GFS is making up for lost time...

Well said.

No that's crazy...and I was conversing with my wife about the models after the seasonal forecasts came out yesterday. The LR models have a warm bias, the GFS a cold bias and hurricane models consistently go lower than the strength eventually gets to...in fact as if last night the storm was never expected to get past cat 2...the other canes this year also went well past predicted strength...not a good time for model consistency...

From The late gord downie new Orleans is sinking and I don't wanna swim...

Not that I put much stock in any long range models, I do believe the norm will be milder winters overall to the mean. Not to say severe winter weather won't occur, however, the days of long cold snaps with small warmups are replaced by longer mild stretches with shots of cold...reminiscent of last year.

I do remember that...even in the baren wasteland of central Cheektowaga...we received roughly a foot and a half as the band passed north and again on the way back...that second pass was at night and at minimum for the 2 or so hours or was over us we picked up about 8" and I lost count of the lightning strikes...if I didn't know better I would've thought it was a July thunderstorm.

Lmao sort of both! I was 2 1/2 at that time and have zero memory of that whole year. Also it was a low pressure system that dropped out of the NW, this is from reading about it, kicking up 50 to 60 mph wind gusts and dropping only about 10 or so inches...but the real hay was the amount of snow that built up on the lake that year. It's the earliest on record of the lake freezing in Buffalo record keeping history and was the largest annual snow fall at 199". That was a huge wind maker more than anything else.

It's interesting you say that. I think the '85 blizzard was the most impactful as it was over the densely populated metro...i then follow that with 01 because again that was a 5 day event and everyone from the northtowns to southtowns received a minimum 2 ft with the sweet spot being west Seneca at 83 inches. Now as far as historical 06 will always be #1 because it was literally 3 weeks after we had a 90 degree high in Sept that year, if memory serves me...'14 was really just south Cheektowaga to orchard park and while no storm can touch it's amount of snow in those 2 events, it matters a bit who was affected.

Lmao...they are!!! Especially after a summer as hot as this was...ill take any fantasy eye candy I can get!!!

Fall. Pumpkin pie, apples, Halloween, the smell of freshly fallen leaves and...the inevitability of the GFS fantasy runs!!! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ The fantasy in the making begins in the October 15th timeframe...and just for consistency it shows up in the 00z as well!!! Lmao...i missed these days...

I read recently in a medical journal that a study was done in Houston and the evolving strain in that city. They are confident that the corona virus will be seasonal like the flu and will require a yearly vaccine just like the flu. I agree with B-dub...we will be wearing masks or people will be for the foreseeable future, whether mandated or not.

That or the rain shaft

I see the band is shifting again...i can't lie I know it's rain but this does have me geeked up for 7 or so weeks from now potentially...

I know we had hail yesterday but it must be much colder at 850 today if that's the case!

The whole state is about 2 weeks ahead of schedule. This is the first time I can recall that in some time.

Now. We live close enough to Rochester to know that is probably our true temp anomaly as KBUF didn't fix the issue with the sensor for at leaat 10 days. And those beginning days were warm.

I finished at 2.24" in Williamsville...no doubt 3" will be topped by tomorrow night

Great question! I know in my backyard rain guage I'm up to 2.14" since it began. The band has shifted north into southern Ontario and southern Niagara so I'm in the lull now.

Straight from WIVB at noon from meteorologist Mike Cejka...the numbers he mentioned were up to 7am..what you're posting is since 7am...thats there 24 hour cutoff

As of 7am West Seneca 2.15" KBUF 1.65"...ive picked 1.9 since 7am! These #rs are going to be huge by the end of Friday.

If it continues on the pace im on now 2" will be easily passed...wow...were going to make up the whole month of September in one day

The lake is active! Im close to 1" for the day since 7am. The diurnal effects are taking hold, even one month later this would be a steady, solid band instead of cellular precip

Round 2 upcoming and round three out over the lake just looks plain nasty.

Sadly that's the "best" this country has given us.

Small hail as well!!! Damn it why couldn't this be 8 weeks from now!