Thinksnow18

If you put it in this context late October sun angle is about the same as early March sun angle and while the ground is definitely colder in March than late October. The sun may not have as big of a deterrent as one might think, especially with rates

KBUF finally mentions snow in the forecast!!! They’ve been slower to react than josh Norman on Derrick Henry’s stiff arm...

Do you have a pic of the map of NY for that?

Weenie run...it’s Monday this might have legs

Yeah that’s more of an open wave instead of a closed low or developed low like the other models are showing

Which would give us legit chances for some lake effect events. The avg high as we get to the second half of November is mid to then low 40’s so it’s not impossible to have a huge event in that timeframe...there’s been plenty of examples.

I would take a cold, snowy dec and Jan in a heartbeat. We could easily get huge numbers with wide open lakes and a good storm track.

12z euro will be key. What concerns me about the players though is that Zeta is still barely moving and all models have its remnants over us by Thursday. That’s less than 72 hours from now and it still hasn’t struck the Yucatán peninsula yet. The question then becomes if it is delayed in hitting the US til say later Wednesday or Thursday will it ever merge with the cutoff over the SW?

I’m actually glad about that...when the GFS of old used to sniff things out a week or so in advance it would lose them 5 or so day out only to catch on again a couple days before. This event will happen. It might be elevation driven but someone in western, central the southern tier is getting the first accumulation with this system

Temps just south of Lake Ontario are 2 degrees above freezing...with any sort of heavy rates it won’t be hard to imagine enough cooling to take place and change everything to snow...in fact temps just north of Lake Ontario are below freezing. The dynamics are there.

While I agree with you I will always have to turn to October 11th and 12th 2006...the infamous October surprise LES event that dropped 25” at the airport. After that took place I realized anything can happen...

Yeah KBUF has been very vanilla lately with their wording. Friday night forecast was for scattered showers and a rumble of thunder possible...it ended up a line of near severe storms and heavy rain for about an hour or so...

0z gfs still has it but a little less impactful, 0z euro has the same storm but not the snow yet

Just looked at the 12z Euro and it has the same concept, pulls the gulf system north and merges it with the 4 corners low and shoots it into the Ohio valley, the H is right over us maybe but north so the cold would be there, but it doesn’t bring the precip shield past the PA line and keeps it liquid.

That is within a week... not true fantasy land

While geeking out this morning I threw in TWC to keep any semblance of mainstream media out, and they were discussing the snow that has fallen to this point in the inter mountain west and the northern plains/upper Midwest, there’s 13.8% of the United state’s covered in at least 1”of snow or mire the most ever for this date going back in decades. If the snowpack even stays somewhat north of that area into Canada one would think this could help as the days shorten next Sunday to refrigerate any cold intrusions coming down from Canada as we get into November

I’ve also been peering at other forums and there are some signs forming of a colder second part of November and cold December. Might get a shot at a front loaded winter based on some current indications.

I will say the models did have a good read on the snowstorm for the upper Midwest this week about a week ago, I think climatologically speaking we are a bit early around here but I do think the second week of November is beginning to look interesting

The next week cool down is looking a bit stronger on both the euro and the GFS. It’s possible during the nighttime if any precipitation is around the lower elevations might see their first flakes mixing in.

The color change was in if the faster ones I can remember...give it about 4 weeks, that is a legitimate time frame...in fact I think our biggest synoptic storm was last year right around mid November

I am glad that it’s not been dry recently in the Great Lakes which can help to keep cooler air around vs If the ground was dry. Looking for promise here.

The LR has really mellowed. It may be some time before we have a shot at winter around here...and for those who say “but the lakes will be warmer” that can be a detriment within about 5 to 10 miles away from the lake between rain and snow...it’s early but I’m getting a bit frustrated looking at all the models having such a warm bias for the winter

Yeah that ended quickly. I said it in an earlier post to BW that I’m hoping this isn’t one of those years where the cold and snow always seems 10 to 14 days away but never gets closer

Gotta think even with rain at lower elevations those temps are upper 30’ at best. This could get interesting for the lake belts if comes to fruition. And did the euro just cave to the GFS at long range?

Same text mentions the cold blast at the end of next weekend into the following week, this might have legs...