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Thinksnow18

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  1. Thinksnow18
    Detroit 7.1”... Cleveland up to a foot... most of Ohio between 5 and 10”...Buffalo...car and rooftop dusting...if we live by this slim margin all winter it will be the biggest kick in the Johnson since the dealer in Vegas vacation asked Clark if he’d give him $50 bucks to do it...
  2. Thinksnow18
    I agree about the wearing thin part. We’re used to lake effect events and Arctic chances...our cold air is system made instead of from the Arctic source region and all our LP tracks the next 2 weeks look warm with cold shots behind leaving us wet and frozen with little to no snow. Something needs to shake this pattern up.
  3. Thinksnow18
    That was my call as well.
  4. Thinksnow18
    The models still have quite a few snow chances after the next storm. It’s coming boys
  5. Thinksnow18
    Temps will cool overnight into Tuesday as wrap around moisture increases and enhancement kicks in...I’m guessing with nighttime accumulation 2-4” looks right at lower elevations and 5-8” in the hills. LES looks to be later in the period with a series of clippers that would actually bring colder air.
  6. Thinksnow18
    How does a LP over eastern PA give WNY rain?
  7. Thinksnow18
    I mean not to be that guy but it MIGHT help WNY...
  8. Thinksnow18
    12z GFS has the low go right over WNY now... if this trend continues I can see a scenario where the WNY region is in the bullseye
  9. Thinksnow18
    Nooooooooooooooooo... : ()
  10. Thinksnow18
    I was just going to add that ScroogeBUF doesn’t like the next week potential...surprise
  11. Thinksnow18
    I think the lake effect idea is going to happen...the question is is the cold air going to be deep enough or will the difference in the warm lake offset that?
  12. Thinksnow18
    The GFS run at 6z does have quite the cold air streak for about 7 days after the storm. And some back door chances as well
  13. Thinksnow18
    This is starting to suck
  14. Thinksnow18
    I don’t see the system acting the way the euro is suggesting on its 12z run. First if there’s no phasing with the northern stream then why so amped? Second item is the HP in Ontario is strong and would shift the track eastward towards the GFS and the UKMET...it will inevitably retrograde westward but I also see no reason for the sit and spin it’s predicting either...
  15. Thinksnow18
    0z euro doesn’t swirl around as much, in fact looks much cleaner than the GFS. Both would deliver LES to the metro, but in different time frames...the CNY crew will love that by the end of the run a nor’easter looks to hit you...in euro we trust
  16. Thinksnow18
    Yes but euro still brings lake effect Tuesday and Wednesday on a SW flow...at least according to the model
  17. Thinksnow18
    We might have something here fellow weenies
  18. Thinksnow18
    So the 12z GFS...well...would be a monster if this scenario bears out...and shifts about 100 miles East...for the November 30th December 1st timeframe...queue whoever can post it because I’m useless in this area...
  19. Thinksnow18
    0z euro has a storm system come in to central NY next Monday and gives us cold rain at the moment but with a caveat...it then redeveloped east of NY and retrogrades west and delivers area wide lake enhanced snows for Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Something to finally watch
  20. Thinksnow18
    I mean if the PV is strong where is the cold over the arctic? And to boot there is no HP over greenland so where’d the cold go?
  21. Thinksnow18
    That has an odd look to it. One thing is guaranteed is the models are struggling like Joe Namath on Monday night football a decade or so ago talking to Suzy kolber
  22. Thinksnow18
    In that specific run (snoozapalooza) we’d be pretty cold but dry as Canadian high pressure would be shoving the storm track well East of here.
  23. Thinksnow18
    Was just over in the NE forum reading 40/70 Benchmark and he’s really bullish on the latest trends showing after the 10th we (northeast) gets the cold air and snow...shows why with slot more explanations than I just gave but he’s going above climo for a white xmas
  24. Thinksnow18
    GFS is doing GFS things. Euro is cleaner and has plenty of cold air. In fact if we’re starting to keep score Euro sniffed out the NW track of the last system 3 full days before GFS did...in Euro we trust!!!
  25. Thinksnow18
    Congrats on your snowfall yesterday!
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