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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Which really doesn’t do much. It’s just a simple 2 or 3 degree bump to rain and nothing else. I’m not sure what’s worse the consistent model flipping or the feeling of knowing deep down we’re all just hoping for things we know aren’t going in our favor right now.
  2. Thinksnow18
    I love it, but notice that 50 mile jog south would leave the Niagara frontier with almost no snow? That’s what you call walking the line
  3. Thinksnow18
    Correct. With the amount of money that’s put into these models you’d expect some accuracy more that 24 to 48 hours out.
  4. Thinksnow18
    I’ve asked this since last year. Model output seems to be at an all time high for inept forecasts.
  5. Thinksnow18
    Lol we’re about to find out what that’s like
  6. Thinksnow18
    I’m thinking 50% Climo snowfall looks very likely right now...unless something drastic changes
  7. Thinksnow18
    You did see the post from Buf Weather right above the post I commented on? The GEFS shows most of the country in cold air. That’s confusing
  8. Thinksnow18
    So I have to ask. If the ensembles are showing a cold pattern, why is every operational run showing warmth and rain? It’s not adding up.
  9. Thinksnow18
    Second cutter is ours. Track looks like WNY cashes similar to the November storm last year.
  10. Thinksnow18
    WNY would be more snow and unfortunately CNY would see more rain to snow...for now...
  11. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I was saying this to my wife earlier. It’s now the norm to have longer stretches of grass on the cold months than it used to be. Seems like just 10 years ago it was quite the opposite. You’d have 5 or 6 days with snowpack, a warmup, melting but then the snowpack was right back for 5 to 7 more days... now we have snow for a day or two and 7 to 10 days of bare ground...welcome to our new normal.
  12. Thinksnow18
    I’m not believing anything at this point. These LR models are all over the map. They are cold one day and warm the next. GEFS shows cold then warm and EPS does same flip. Honestly it’s getting tiring. I know one thing is cold winters like we were used to are over going forward. We’ll always be cool to occasionally cold but long duration cold outbreaks are a thing of the past. Sad .
  13. Thinksnow18
    Man that band off Lake Erie looks amazing...for a rain band...
  14. Thinksnow18
    Remember BW when you posted the 3&4 week outlook and it showed no warm anomalies across the country? How a few days changes...I guess the point is these models are lost. Honestly if you’re more that 5 days out I wouldn’t trust them at all.
  15. Thinksnow18
    I believe that would be the cold air dropping south from Canada and moving East
  16. Thinksnow18
    Yeah and the 6z was shitshow TV...
  17. Thinksnow18
    One would think (I try not to) that with both ensembles showing the PV over Hudson Bay we’d get quite a few chances for clippers or waves of energy around the base of that trough giving us a more active pattern. I also think that’s the fly in the ointment as well however. As these short waves time up with southern stream LP’s they’re capturing these storms and we’re getting the typical cutter parade. Might be nice to see these not time so well
  18. Thinksnow18
    So my guess is the GEFS is not lining up?
  19. Thinksnow18
    It’s like one in a million...so you’re saying there’s a chance?!
  20. Thinksnow18
    So while he’s a bit of a douche, I did notice Cohen mentioned that a perturbation of the PV in the near term will cause milder conditions in the East for the next couple weeks but long term (heading into January) a substantial event looks to be taking shape...this MIGHT be our only hope this winter.
  21. Thinksnow18
    I’m not buying in until I’m snow blowing my driveway
  22. Thinksnow18
    Just not seeing anything that excites me at this time. I saw yesterday the EPS backed off in the idea of a cold East and warm west and it was the opposite instead. This is looking like we’re going to need to take advantage of every cold period we get because it’s not working in our favor ATM
  23. Thinksnow18
    When is the last time you saw the entire lower 48 with NO warm anomalies???
  24. Thinksnow18
    Hey BW and all fellow weenies...can someone post the 8-14 day CPC outlook? This is something I’ve never seen before...
  25. Thinksnow18
    That’s at 18z or roughly 6pm...no diurnal effects and rates??? That might not be liquid
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