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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Aye aye! Gonna grab a six pack like jimmy griffin once said and stay in and drink
  2. Thinksnow18
    Still not budging. Your thoughts BW? I re-read the WWA for Niagara county...it does mention the band forming north then sinking south this evening...is that the main band forming over the Niagara peninsula?
  3. Thinksnow18
    Here’s the point that actually takes all those mesos and debunks them...sho me which one has a band that formed over the Niagara peninsula...I’ll help you it’s zero...there is some snow showers south of buff and in fact I’m getting some flakes here in Williamsville, but, you can actually see the formation of the full stretch of the lake... that’s the band IMO, that will head south over the course of the afternoon and in fact is mentioned by the NWS text...NWS 1, all other models 0
  4. Thinksnow18
    Is the lake band currently trying to form over the Niagara peninsula of Ontario?
  5. Thinksnow18
    That bad eh?
  6. Thinksnow18
    Yea like I said earlier this will be a true week of winter. Multiple opportunities synoptic and mesoscale
  7. Thinksnow18
    Agreed. And I remember that storm very well too. I was driving back from Syracuse university and remember the band was supposed to be mostly north towns then swing quickly to the south, instead it stalled square over the metro and well that mess happened with the schools and kids, crazy for sure.
  8. Thinksnow18
    Wow NWS not backing down. The battle is on
  9. Thinksnow18
    Most of those still hit north towns with a good shot. This isn’t going to be your typical lake set up...multiple bands, oscillation...it will all factor
  10. Thinksnow18
    And it looks like those inside the 190-290 loop get passed over due to the strong winds...I still think this is a “share the wealth” band...I’d be happy with 8 or 10 inches.
  11. Thinksnow18
    See this makes me believe these models haven’t handled this well at all. Local Mets say after evening...that will bust by 5 hours.
  12. Thinksnow18
    Love the trajectory
  13. Thinksnow18
    I checked as well, and if it looks like that upwind already then I’m willing to gamble it begins here around noontime.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Like I said we all score...may not be 2 feet at a crack but we will all be near 2 feet by weeks end, I’m calling my shot.
  15. Thinksnow18
    I mean we did get, well I did at least, 14.5” after Christmas and it was picked over for a bit, same with 2018 January blizzard but yes your point is taken. Still this one isn’t over yet... NWS doesn’t like to bust if they don’t have to do I’m still somewhat hopeful...
  16. Thinksnow18
    I think his one smokes you.
  17. Thinksnow18
    You’ve brought me into your camp...although this one isn’t for us, both the 0z and 6z GFS both had WNY over 18” of snow due to synoptic and probably some shifting bands next week. We’ll all get ours.
  18. Thinksnow18
    That is a good cluster. At this point it’s all about just letting it all play out.
  19. Thinksnow18
    Is that the progression?
  20. Thinksnow18
    Again these models have snow over the Boston hills and south. It’s just mind boggling.
  21. Thinksnow18
    I think you’re overdoing it a bit. Until I see the NWS drop the advisory for Niagara and Orleans and I don’t see a low straight above Lake Superior I still think we’re good. Time will tell I suppose.
  22. Thinksnow18
    Well I guess it’s the NWS and Todd Vs everyone else
  23. Thinksnow18
    Every one of those maps are absolutely atrocious looking. Every in-house model these stations have access to should be replaced or at very least updated. Not a chance in hell 7 comes to fruition and 2 is just, I don’t even have words for what 2 is...and Todd is smart and realizes the models suck. I believe the NWS is doing a great job with ACTUAL forecasting based on LP placement and upper air currents. These models aren’t good for much.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Nice! Enjoy!
  25. Thinksnow18
    Gfs was also more north again...oscillation looks likely...I also question if a powerful lake band just completely shuts off ahead of the Sunday am S/W...if the wind field is still aligned there should be ample moisture ahead of the S/W...curious what happens Sunday am
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