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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Well luckily the NWS isn’t concerned with dry air...yet...
  2. Thinksnow18
    Yes and you and I both know the short range models are far superior to any global model at LES.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Are you surprised with that forecast and the verbiage the NWS used this morning that the heaviest snow could be up to Niagara Falls that Niagara isn’t under a watch as well?
  4. Thinksnow18
    There it is!!! The first 18-24” mark on the map!
  5. Thinksnow18
    One thing KBUF does well is Lake Effect. I’m riding with their forecast until told otherwise.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Yeah it has a WSW wind at best. Toss
  7. Thinksnow18
    I’m guessing it’s the model channel 4 is tied into?
  8. Thinksnow18
    Love that look!
  9. Thinksnow18
    Yeah again it’s local guys so I take with a grain of salt
  10. Thinksnow18
    And yet I believe they are aware of this, at least Todd was last night at 6 when he vehemently refused to show the model because it was way off and admitted it was having a lot of problems..this makes the channel look bad not being on the same page.
  11. Thinksnow18
    Exactly...I also love the “land band” between Amherst and Clarence that forms off the Niagara peninsula...toss...
  12. Thinksnow18
    I noticed in the AFD that maybe as far north as Niagara Falls? While the NWS is stating a North Erie special, Mike Cjeika is losing his credibility. He shows the band never getting above the southtowns and bullseye is OP...I think they need new models, just as Todd mentioned himself last night...
  13. Thinksnow18
    NAM seems to be on its own...but even it gets us a good hit by Saturday afternoon.
  14. Thinksnow18
    About 4 1/2”. Some compaction today and the temp jumped up to 34
  15. Thinksnow18
    Yes it’s looking rather good at this juncture. Yup LEKid still lives up here.
  16. Thinksnow18
    That’s a classic band...my unprofessional opinion...the stronger that band is the better chance it has surging any of the other factors.
  17. Thinksnow18
    Got it...thank you
  18. Thinksnow18
    270? Odd how the winds off Erie are 240
  19. Thinksnow18
    I’m confused. The NWS has nothing about dry air. In fact it speaks of ample moisture...there’s a shortwave nearby and has moisture with it...not sure why the NAM shows it, hell even Todd debunked it...
  20. Thinksnow18
    Buffalo won’t catch Binghamton after Friday-Saturday but we will put a good dent in that gap...
  21. Thinksnow18
    Strange
  22. Thinksnow18
    The only thing I can think of is maybe the lakes influence wasn’t as great just a few miles away...I’m always intrigued by totals...the lakes can do some goofy things with totals.
  23. Thinksnow18
    Being north of KBUF we received 2.1 Monday Night into Tuesday and while it didn’t accumulate much more Tuesday it didn’t stop snowing until evening...then last night I picked up 3.1 more for a storm total of 5.2”...lake enhancement means a lot...it falls in line with this area of Northern Erie Co in the 4-6” of snow cover
  24. Thinksnow18
    Yeah sustained of 20-25 are not strong enough to do that. Gusts to 40 also won’t do that...the snowflake size will be sheared but with a uniform SW glow I’d be more concerned if there was directional shear I’d be concerned...I also just had to shake my head...Todd santos went to where the NWS is going with more than a foot and actually mentioned, on air their model is handling it poorly...so 30 minutes prior the other met said 3-6” and dry air...the other met says over a foot...
  25. Thinksnow18
    Minus the cutter now...how is that now even possible the GFS is showing that option next Tuesday? Going from ridiculous cold in the teens to rain?! WTF
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