Thinksnow18

Toss.

Well we’ve overachieved twice this week. The dink and dunk has added up to a little more than half a foot. Not bad for some Southern slider and a cold front passage!

Odd I’m at 2.1”. Measure again!

Any aerial/satellite imagery of Lake Erie today?

KBUF, if all goes perfect, could make up that deficit this weekend

Yeah I keep having to remind myself that it’s February. The sun angle is getting a bit higher now.

I’ve noticed even with the extreme cold and little sun my snowpack is down about 5”.sublimation and compaction my guess

Also Chris Wessling NFL network passed away yesterday from cancer at age 46. Sad couple days

Yes but here’s the rub...BW pointed out that we really needed the -EPO all along and was spot on. Look at those indexes...every one of them was in our favor the first month and half of winter and we were mild, hell in fact I can’t remember a winter (exactly since December 1st) when the AO has been solidly negative the entire time! Yet with a positive PNA, -NAO and -NAO we were mild. I guess at this point I’m not putting much stock into the indicies with the exception of the EPO as it seems to be the driver of our cold chances.

It has the storm but 2 days later and is much further west.

Well at least it looks more plausible than the 6z. That one was wonky with the primary stating around too long with no secondary on the coast yet a huge precip shield...at least this run shows a transfer to the coast and a trough back west for a good looking Miller B

You know we all like winter on this blog...

6z GFS has the sequel to the Valentines Day massacre

It’s why my wife and I have been leery...it has, from day one, been all about the second shot being the one that has possible major side effects. I’m holding out for the Johnson and Johnson one or another 1 shot vaccine.

This is a clinic.

Looks like many of upstate will be below zero tonight. 6:34 pm and it’s already down to 11 degrees. Fresh snowpack and clear skies we could bottom out here to about -1 to -4

I mean the ratios will be no less than 15-1 with that system so even .3 LE is 5” of snowfall

Chestnut Ridge?

Agreed. I’m at roughly the same amount I picked up 10.1” and 2.8” for a total of 12.9 and seasonal total is 59.4” (I think it’s a bit more due in part to the first event after Christmas) and I agree one good event synoptic or meso will get us close this year. I’m pretty optimistic, especially with the upcoming pattern. One of these systems will pop in our favor.

Some if these totals look WAY off...1.6 at Clarence center bit 12 at Akron? Nope also 4.1@ E. Williamsville bit 9.4 @ NNW Williamsville?

12z GFS has a S/W around Friday/Saturday that would be a nice WSW/SW wind flow for 18-24 hours or so. 6z also had thus feature.

Dev we might make a run at 4” this am...the lake has supercharged this cold front

Agreed and while Rochester may not make up the deficit I wouldn’t be so sure Buffalo won’t come close. One more good lake event and one blockbuster synoptic storm and it will be close. I think we’re at 55” as of yesterday with about 3” more today and we’re only 35” away from normal

Yep the flake size and no wind is just stunning. I think alit if the north towns will be closing in on a foot and half OTG by weeks end. Nice deep snowpack for once and will be a good two to three week time period of snow OTG maybe longer if the GFS is to be believed

Closing in on 2” (1.8”) should be close to 3 by the end in an hour or two. Combine with Tuesday and then Thursday-Friday a total of 10”-12” total for all 3 events is likely. Very cool times!