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Thinksnow18

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  1. Thinksnow18
    Definitely not an advisory level storm that's only 4 to 7 inches...euro output equivalent is .8 at KBUF through Monday which us roughly 11 to 14 inches with 20 to 1 ratios. Temps will be no better that low 20's early Saturday and dropping through the day. Won't be an 18 to 24 inch blockbuster but I'll take a foot with blowing and drifting.
  2. Thinksnow18
    So is the winter storm watch awfully long in duration? Most local models have snow ending sunday afternoon and long range models do not do well with lake effect/enhancement so what would be the reason for the Sunday night and Monday time frame?
  3. Thinksnow18
    Seems like a lot of people are writing this storm off. It'll be interesting to see what model is the winner.
  4. Thinksnow18
    It also is only including true moisture output from the system itself. This does not include lake enhancement.
  5. Thinksnow18
    You know anywhere from buffalo north to the lake Ontario shoreline will get much more snow than say Lackawanna or hamburg due to LE...ive witnessed it with every storm and is always underestimated.
  6. Thinksnow18
    I wake up in the morning and I piss excellence.
  7. Thinksnow18
    Not looking good for the home team.
  8. Thinksnow18
    Yes it does!!!
  9. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I'm definitely on the concerned side. This does not look as fun as it did just 20 hours ago. I'm not quite saying on to the next one but you can't help but feel wary at this point.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Wow that low is really far south...if that moves more easterly than NE this may become a non event altogether
  11. Thinksnow18
    Just re-read the AFD this morning. Says wind vector will almost be due north at a 20 vector on Saturday night and Sunday. They do say SIGNIFICANT lake enhancement for all areas south of lake Ontario. They also say it should still be a plowable snow. That last part doesn't exactly evoke confidence as plows come out when there's only 3". Losing a little confidence in this storm.
  12. Thinksnow18
    What these models don't do well with is the mesoscale optics. There will be considerable help from the lakes with a storm track such as this. I think the high res NAM tomorrow will start to get into its range that shows us the synoptic and mesoscale details much clearer.
  13. Thinksnow18
    Yeah quite a shift south on the models, Euro shows a dramatic shift to the south taking heavy snow to most of PA, in fact perilously too close for NW WNY where it's looking like 3 or 4 inches only. Now I don't believe that as even the AFD this morning says there will be considerable help from LO Buffalo north. A lot of runs yet but definitely a change.
  14. Thinksnow18
    I mean IF all these model runs even verify 1/2 of what is being shown 15 days out most if upstate will be 2 feet plus.
  15. Thinksnow18
    The only way 6" is with 8 to 1 ratios...the snow will be 15 or closer to 20 to 1 by the heart of the storm. Even .75 with ratios in that area are 12 inches plus.
  16. Thinksnow18
    No way 6 to 12 with enhancement...thats your cautious side speaking!!! The moisture and the dynamics are there...if the metro got 6" that would be an epic bust imo.
  17. Thinksnow18
    I agree with this too and trust me he's not pulling a forecast...but he wanted to show everyone what he believes this storm could be. I actually think it wise to give people enough notice to change plans if traveling or such.
  18. Thinksnow18
    Amazing when most are flush hits
  19. Thinksnow18
    Mike Cejka from WIVB here in Buf gave his earliest thoughts...he said 12" to 18" metro north and 18" to 24" south over the higher terrain...he stated these were on the "lower side" as some model ( guessing the Euro) is much greater!!! Can we just fast forward to thursday already!!!
  20. Thinksnow18
    Agreed. They actually discussed the possibility this morning's AFD but I think it would be confusing with the slider on Thursday night Friday morning of 2 to 4. Thursday afternoon AFD my guess.
  21. Thinksnow18
    2014 actually had 2 Blizzard warnings at KBUF...the first in early January which was lake effect/enhanced hybrid and the second was in early March around the 11th or 12th time frame. We also had an odd Blizzard warning out of nowhere in January 2017 from Lake effect that blew up and caught everyone by surprise...its the same storm that a huge pileup occurred on the 90 East bound right in front of the airport.
  22. Thinksnow18
    From what I'm cleaning this isn't just a wave runner, the phasing the EURO is showing exploded this storm and really enhances rates with lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. I remember a very similar storm in January 2005 that dumped 18" in NT where I was living at the time. Lots of lake enhancement and high ratios. Very similar to me at this time.
  23. Thinksnow18
    FWIW 6z at 228 has 18" at KBUF and 19" at KSYR...at 10 to 1 ratios.
  24. Thinksnow18
    We are in the midst of potential historical weather in upstate NY , the kind that could become an analog talked about for decades like 77, 85, 2014 and 15. I don't think it's out of bounds to realistically discuss 2 to 3 feet of snow over a good portion of upstate within the next 10 days and bitter cold thereafter.
  25. Thinksnow18
    Yeah that seems like a huge change out if nowhere.
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