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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Lowered accums to 3-7" northern Erie
  2. Thinksnow18
    I still feel that the lower elevations "accums" will be less than forecast by the end of the event due to melting...snowing in Williamsville now, barely anything sticking and yet on a board they will be able to measure it.
  3. Thinksnow18
    It always amazes me how 20 miles and elevation make a world of difference in totals and intensity.
  4. Thinksnow18
    Yeah it's a touch too warm in Williamsville right now...although on radar it looks much more impressive than what's falling outside
  5. Thinksnow18
    That almost looks like a large meso low
  6. Thinksnow18
    KBUF has a WWA for Northern Erie, Genesee for 5 to 9 inches 7pm tonight through tomorrow afternoon. There's discussion of a convergence band developing in the southtowns out through the Genesee Valley late this afternoon. I'm still thinking a couple inches best at KBUF but this area could receive the 5-9 they are predicting.
  7. Thinksnow18
    Are we currently in phase 8? If so where is the consistent cold? I guess I look at it this way if aren't scoring at the lower elevations, and we've had chances, then we might as well pull for a trend to milder conditions which will lengthen the lake effect opportunities in January.
  8. Thinksnow18
    NWS buf going with 2-4" for lake plains including buffalo...still think low end of that at best due to marginal temps and plenty of melting on the ground at first.
  9. Thinksnow18
    I'm having a hard time thinking that where I live in Williamsville that I'm on on the 6-8" range. I'd be surprised if we received 2"
  10. Thinksnow18
    Lori dengert
  11. Thinksnow18
    It appears from this vantage point that we will be seeing a more synoptic/hybrid lake enhanced snows on Wednesday for a good chunk of the CWA...my thoughts are most get some accums with the areas with of buffalo and tug hill to northern Oswego jackpotting off Ontario. After that we warm again and then another cold shot.
  12. Thinksnow18
    This forecast for the next 2 weeks is starting to take a toll on our number of people interested imby weather. With what looks to be southern tier snows-tug hill snows followed by mild spells then wash, rinse repeat southern tier-tug hill LES...ugh...thank God the Sabres are smokin hot.
  13. Thinksnow18
    For those of us from the old WIVB weather blog we have a Don Paul sighting!!! It's in reply to the CFS V2 predicting a warmer December and January now and many people slamming the model for predicting a warm November as well.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Yeah that LP needs to be about 300 miles to the west right above lake superior foe a metro event. Like I said earlier this shaping up to be a nickle and dime year for the Niagara Frontier.
  15. Thinksnow18
    THAT we don't need!!! If the forecast verifies this week with heavy LES in the typical belts then there will be some serious flooding at catt creek and southern tier subsidiaries. Btw what happened to cold start to December??
  16. Thinksnow18
    Starting to think outside of the westerly and northwesterly snow belt regions the rest of us will be nickle and dimeing our way to decent snowfalls accumulations
  17. Thinksnow18
    Well said!!!
  18. Thinksnow18
    Leaders make teams better...every team ROR has left has been remarkably better the next year. Check it out for yourself...the avs got better, now the sabres got better, subsequently he came to us we got worse now they just fired their coach in St. Louis. Points and faceoff wins mean nothing just ask Connor mcdavid. We are MUCH better without him. Addition by subtraction. Same with Kane.
  19. Thinksnow18
    Wait the airport has had 6"??? I lI've about 2 maybe 3 miles north as the crow flies and I'd be shocked if we had 1/2 of that. Now if they're including melted frozen thats melting on the grass but not a snowboard them I can't day that's false.
  20. Thinksnow18
    The models have that band sweeping west over time tonight eventually reaching buffalo south...oh wait buffalo doesn't get snow...nevermind the models are broken...
  21. Thinksnow18
    Yeah skies trying to clear here in west Seneca right now as well. Next week MIGHT be interesting IF the closed low retrogrades far enough back west when the cold air deepens.
  22. Thinksnow18
    What's this snow you speak of???
  23. Thinksnow18
    I cant even meet broom worthy snow to this point.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Point is the warmer air wasn't forecasted to the degree that mixing was an issue. This has been more problematic this year and has kept down accums on the Niagara frontier. And looking out to next week and beyond it doesn't look to change much.
  25. Thinksnow18
    Everything falling the past 3 hours has been a mix of graupel. Sleet and rain...none of which was forecast and currently 34 degrees...wake me up in 3 weeks.
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